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How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (9/5-9/11)
kalshi

How many endorsements will Trump make?

Volume:
$10,409

At least 20

 - Kalshi

At least 20 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 7:15 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,436
N/A
N/A
$1,654
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,980
N/A
N/A
$1,459
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3

View
0%
91%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,611
N/A
N/A
$1,294
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 5

View
0%
79%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,532
N/A
N/A
$1,297
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 10

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,469
N/A
N/A
$1,284
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,098
N/A
N/A
$930
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$282
N/A
N/A
$112
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks the number of explicit endorsements Donald Trump makes for political candidates on his Truth Social platform during a specified week. It focuses on clear, direct statements of support rather than implied or indirect references. The outcome depends on whether he reaches certain thresholds of endorsements within that timeframe.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether Donald Trump issues a specified number of formal endorsements for political candidates on Truth Social between September 5, 2026, and September 11, 2026. An endorsement qualifies if it is a clear, affirmative statement of support—such as explicitly stating "I endorse [candidate] for [office]" or "Vote for [candidate]." Reaffirmations of prior endorsements and conditional endorsements count, but ambiguous statements or passive references (e.g., posting a graphic stating a candidate was endorsed) do not. Each individual candidate can only be counted once per week, regardless of how many times they are endorsed. The market resolves to "Yes" if Trump meets or exceeds the threshold defined in each market (ranging from 3 to 50 endorsements); otherwise, it resolves to "No."

Frequently asked questions

Generally, prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polling averages, as they reflect not just *who* people say they will do, but *what people believe will actually happen*. In this case, this market aggregates the informed opinions of traders who have a financial stake in correctly forecasting the number of Trump endorsements. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market captures beliefs about the likelihood of those preferences translating into actual endorsements. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform polls, particularly in events where strategic considerations or hidden information play a significant role, but it's important to remember that both offer different insights.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price spread between the most and least likely outcomes provides an indication of the uncertainty surrounding the event. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market’s pricing, and currently, volume is at $10,409.

This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the number of endorsements made by Donald Trump on his Truth Social account between September 5th and September 11th will be tallied. The resolution will be based on publicly available posts and will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy. The market will settle to the number of distinct individuals endorsed during that timeframe, providing a clear and objective determination of the outcome for this market.

Several signals could significantly move this market. Any direct statements from Donald Trump regarding his endorsement plans would be a major catalyst. Increased activity on his Truth Social account, particularly hinting at upcoming endorsements, could also drive price changes. News reports about potential candidates seeking Trump’s endorsement, or political developments that might influence his decision-making, would likely impact trading activity. Finally, any unexpected events or controversies involving potential endorsees could also shift the market, as traders adjust their assessments of the likelihood of each outcome.