TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 21, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Donald Trump endorses candidates for elected office on Truth Social during the week of June 14-20, 2026. An endorsement must be a clear, affirmative statement of support for a specific candidate in a political race, such as explicitly stating support or urging voters to choose that candidate. Each person can only be counted once per week, though reaffirmations of prior endorsements qualify.
Endorsements are counted based on clear, affirmative statements of support for candidates in political races posted on Truth Social from June 14-20, 2026. Qualifying endorsements include explicit statements like "I endorse [candidate] for [office]," "I support [candidate]" with reference to a specific race, "Vote for [candidate]," or "[candidate] has my full support" for a particular election. Ambiguous statements of support do not qualify, nor do posts that merely state as fact that a candidate was endorsed without an affirmative endorsement statement. Reaffirmations of previously made endorsements count toward the total. If Trump endorses multiple candidates in the same election, each counts separately. Each individual can only be counted once during the specified week, regardless of how many times they are mentioned.
Prediction markets like this one differ fundamentally from polls. While traditional polls measure stated preferences at a single moment, this market aggregates real-money bets from traders who have financial incentive to forecast accurately. Traders often incorporate news, social media activity, and expert analysis to price outcomes. The odds here reflect collective expectations about endorsement volume, whereas polls typically measure voter sentiment or approval. Market prices can shift rapidly in response to breaking news or Trump's posting patterns, making them more dynamic than snapshot polling data.
This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, once the trading week closes and the final count of endorsements can be verified. The outcome is determined by counting all endorsements Trump posted on Truth Social between June 14 and June 20, 2026. Resolution is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting and official records. Traders should monitor Truth Social activity throughout the week to track progress toward each outcome bucket.
Several factors could shift odds significantly. Major political announcements or campaign events may prompt Trump to issue endorsements in concentrated bursts, moving the market sharply upward. Conversely, a quiet news cycle could suppress endorsement activity and push odds downward. Real-time Truth Social posts are the primary signal traders monitor. Media coverage of Trump's endorsement strategy, primary election developments, or shifts in his social media posting frequency could all trigger repricing. Late-week momentum often drives final adjustments as traders lock in positions ahead of resolution.