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How many Pennsylvania mail ballots will be requested?
At least 1.25 million
- Kalshi
At least 1.25 million - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Time left: 01d:19h:22m
Will the UF Election Lab's count of Pennsylvania mail ballots requested for the 2026 general election be at least 1.25 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks the number of mail ballots requested by voters in Pennsylvania for the 2026 general election, providing insight into anticipated voter participation through absentee voting. The outcome depends on whether official counts meet or exceed specific thresholds by a set deadline.
Kalshi
All markets in this event resolve based on the University of Florida Election Lab’s reported count of mail ballots requested in Pennsylvania for the 2026 general election as of 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. The determining figure is the headline "Mail ballots requested" value shown on the Pennsylvania page of the UF Election Lab’s 2026 Early Voting Tracker at that exact time. If the web page is unavailable, the request_all value from the UF Election Lab’s early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) will be used instead. No updates published after 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, are considered. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from 1.2 million to 1.5 million), and resolves to Yes only if the official count meets or exceeds its specific threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds in this market reflect a collective prediction about the number of Pennsylvania mail ballots that will be requested. These predictions are formed by traders actively buying and selling contracts, and can differ from those made by political analysts or polling data. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and incentivize accurate forecasting through financial rewards. Comparing this market to expert opinions provides a valuable perspective on the range of possible outcomes and the level of uncertainty surrounding the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders set the prices by placing buy and sell orders. The current price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that specific number of mail ballots being requested. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price will fluctuate based on supply and demand, influenced by news events, polling data, and overall market sentiment. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price movements.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official number of Pennsylvania mail ballot requests is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of mail ballot requests received by the Pennsylvania Department of State, as publicly reported by official sources. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual number of requests will receive a payout, while those holding contracts representing incorrect numbers will not. The market’s final price will reflect the consensus prediction at the time of resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Changes in Pennsylvania election laws regarding mail-in voting, major news stories about voter access or security concerns, and shifts in public opinion as reflected in polling data are all potential catalysts. Additionally, announcements from the Pennsylvania Department of State regarding mail ballot procedures or deadlines could move the market. Any event that alters perceptions of voter turnout or the ease of requesting a mail ballot has the potential to impact trading activity and price fluctuations in this market.
