How many AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries by August 4, 2026?

Prediction markets and traditional polls measure different things: polls capture voter intent at a single moment, while this market reflects traders' aggregated beliefs about actual primary outcomes. Market odds often diverge from polls because traders incorporate late-breaking news, turnout expectations, and historical primary patterns that surveys may lag. As primary elections occur and results accumulate, market prices typically converge toward realized outcomes faster than polls update. Comparing current odds to recent polling can reveal where traders see value or risk relative to conventional political forecasting.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares corresponding to each outcome—ranging from zero to all 34 endorsees losing primaries. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability for the leading outcome reflects the collective trading activity and order-book depth at any moment. Prices adjust continuously as new information arrives, including primary results, candidate withdrawals, and shifts in campaign momentum. Wider bid-ask spreads typically appear for extreme outcomes or during low-volume periods, while tighter spreads develop around outcomes traders view as most likely.

This market resolves around Aug 4, 2026, after all primary elections through that date have concluded. The outcome is determined by counting verified primary losses among the 34 AIPAC-endorsed candidates, confirmed once results are finalized and publicly reported by state election authorities. No further appeals or recounts typically affect the count at that stage. Resolution occurs once the total number of primary defeats is established and cross-checked against credible public sources, allowing traders to settle their positions.

Primary election results are the dominant driver—each loss or victory among the 34 endorsees directly updates the outcome count and reshapes odds for remaining races. Candidate withdrawals or late-stage endorsement shifts can alter perceived viability before voting occurs. Turnout surges, last-minute polling surprises, and high-profile endorsements from rival groups may influence trader expectations. Debates, campaign spending reports, and media coverage of individual races can also shift prices as traders reassess which endorsees face the strongest primary challengers. As August 4 approaches, actual vote tallies will lock in outcomes and compress remaining uncertainty.