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How many justices will vote for Trump in the FTC removal case?
kalshi

How many justices will vote for Trump in the FTC removal case?

Volume:
$92,394

6

 - Kalshi

6 - Kalshi

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 10:35 AM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

6

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,908
N/A
N/A
$16,933
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,117
N/A
N/A
$13,089
Settled
No
kalshi

4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,201
N/A
N/A
$8,039
Settled
No
kalshi

3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,012
N/A
N/A
$7,859
Settled
No
kalshi

2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,624
N/A
N/A
$6,611
Settled
No
kalshi

0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,374
N/A
N/A
$6,137
Settled
No
kalshi

7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,281
N/A
N/A
$5,979
Settled
No
kalshi

8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,854
N/A
N/A
$4,854
Settled
No
kalshi

1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,848
N/A
N/A
$3,848
Settled
No
kalshi

9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,175
N/A
N/A
$3,175
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks the specific number of Supreme Court justices who will vote in favor of the petitioner in Trump v. Slaughter, a case concerning FTC removal authority. On Kalshi, exactly 6 justices voting for the petitioner stands at 85.0%, while exactly 5 justices voting for the petitioner is at 5.0%. The market resolves according to the official Supreme Court decision in Trump v. Slaughter, with resolution expected by August 1, 2026. Watch for the Court's formal opinion release, which will determine the final vote count and settle the market.

Kalshi

A justice is counted as voting in favor of the petitioner only if their final recorded position supports a judgment granting some or all relief requested. If the petitioner prevails, count all justices who joined the majority opinion, wrote or joined concurring opinions, or concurred in the judgment. If the petitioner loses, count all justices who dissented and whose dissent would have granted relief; procedural-only dissenters do not count. For partial victories, count any justice whose vote supports any portion granting relief. Per curiam opinions are treated as representing all participating justices unless dissenters or non-participants are noted. Cases dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated without decision, withdrawn, or settled resolve as 0 votes. Only final votes in official slip opinions, summary dispositions, or orders count; leaked drafts and internal shifts are excluded. Recused or non-participating justices are excluded from the total count.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price data for this Supreme Court prediction event on Kalshi. It displays the current probability that a specific number of justices will vote in favor of Trump in the FTC removal case, along with 24-hour trading volume of $7,134 and total group volume of $92,394. Users can monitor how market sentiment evolves as new information emerges, view price charts over time, and see which outcomes are attracting the most trader interest. This single-venue tracker helps participants understand current market consensus on this high-stakes constitutional question.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders who profit or lose based on the actual Supreme Court vote count, creating strong incentives for accuracy. Unlike traditional polls, which measure public opinion or expert sentiment, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information through price discovery. Traders incorporate legal analysis, judicial voting history, oral argument signals, and case precedent into their positions. When prediction market odds diverge significantly from analyst expectations, it often signals that informed traders see factors experts may have overlooked. This event's market pricing represents a dynamic, continuously updated forecast distinct from static polling data.

The market resolves on Aug 1, 2026, at which point the actual Supreme Court vote count in Trump v. Slaughter will be recorded and compared against the predicted outcome. Resolution is determined by the official opinion and vote tally released by the Supreme Court. Once the decision is published, the outcome is verified and all positions settle according to whether the final vote count matches the predicted number of justices voting for Trump. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is final and binding.

Key catalysts include oral arguments before the Supreme Court, where justices' questions and skepticism may signal their likely positions. Published opinions from lower courts, amicus briefs filed by major legal organizations, and statements from sitting justices in other cases can shift trader expectations. Major political developments, legislative action related to the FTC's authority, or unexpected legal precedents could reshape the judicial landscape. Media coverage of the case and expert legal commentary influence trader sentiment. As the resolution date approaches and the Court's decision date draws near, market prices typically become more volatile and reflect final positioning by informed participants.