TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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How many jobs added in September?
kalshi
polymarket

How many jobs added in September?

Total volume:
$36,155
Volume 24h:
$371
88%
Liquidity:
$20,045
2%
Open interest:
$13,096
1%

Above -25,000

 - Kalshi

Above -25,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 3, 2026

Time left: 22d:04h:54m

Will above -25000 jobs be added in September 2026?

91%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 94¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 91% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 179% 22 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above -25,000

Trade
91%
Yes 94¢No 9¢
3¢
N/A
$463
0.22%
15%
$406
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 0

Trade
89%
4%
Yes 89¢No 15¢
4¢
N/A
$1,174
0.29%
61%
$1,113
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 10,000

Trade
82%
Yes 100¢No 18¢
18¢
N/A
$2,470
2%
37%
$670
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 20,000

Trade
77%
Yes 100¢No 23¢
23¢
N/A
$327
0%
304%
$269
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 30,000

Trade
74%
Yes 79¢No 31¢
10¢
N/A
$1,212
0%
0.11%
$427
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 40,000

Trade
70%
Yes 74¢No 36¢
10¢
N/A
$1,624
0%
14%
$494
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 50,000

Trade
61%
4%
Yes 64¢No 41¢
5¢
N/A
$2,539
2%
85%
$1,286
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 60,000

Trade
54%
Yes 60¢No 46¢
6¢
N/A
$2,160
0%
89%
$1,005
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 70,000

Trade
52%
4%
Yes 52¢No 56¢
8¢
N/A
$3,026
2%
41%
$887
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 90,000

Trade
39%
4%
Yes 44¢No 66¢
10¢
N/A
$1,373
7%
63%
$626
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 80,000

Trade
39%
Yes 45¢No 62¢
7¢
N/A
$319
0%
7%
$166
3w 1d 4h
active
polymarket

50k to 100k

Trade
32%
4%
Yes 35¢No 72¢
7¢
$2,177
$439
4%
N/A
N/A
3w 1d 18h
active
polymarket

0 to 50k

Trade
28%
2%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
$3,136
$505
0%
N/A
N/A
3w 1d 18h
active
kalshi

Above 100,000

Trade
28%
3%
Yes 37¢No 72¢
9¢
N/A
$8,754
0.47%
27%
$3,146
3w 1d 4h
active
kalshi

Above 125,000

Trade
23%
1%
Yes 25¢No 82¢
7¢
N/A
$7,787
0.89%
15%
$2,601
3w 1d 4h
active
polymarket

150k to 200k

Trade
13%
2%
Yes 15¢No 90¢
5¢
$3,202
$362
0%
N/A
N/A
3w 1d 18h
active
polymarket

100k to 150k

Trade
12%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
$2,275
$307
0%
N/A
N/A
3w 1d 18h
active
polymarket

-50k to 0

Trade
10%
Yes 12¢No 92¢
4¢
$3,526
$389
0%
N/A
N/A
3w 1d 18h
active
polymarket

200k+

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 13¢No 95¢
8¢
$2,716
$541
0%
N/A
N/A
3w 1d 18h
active
polymarket

<-50k

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 9¢No 96¢
5¢
$3,014
$383
0.15%
N/A
N/A
3w 1d 18h
active
Total markets: 20

Description

This group forecasts the net change in US non-farm payroll employment for the month of September 2026. The resolution will be based on data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their Employment Situation Summary.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers a series of 'over X' markets, effectively creating a single 'over 0' resolution. Polymarket offers range-bound markets focusing on specific job addition/loss scenarios.Hero tip: Kalshi's structure makes it a broad 'will jobs increase at all?' question. Polymarket allows for more nuanced bets on the *magnitude* of the job change. Consider the implied probabilities and your confidence in specific ranges.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers multiple markets based on specific job change ranges (e.g., adding 0-50k jobs, losing >50k jobs). Resolution hinges on falling within a defined bracket. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
  • Kalshi: Kalshi presents a series of markets resolving YES if the job increase exceeds a specific threshold (0, 10k, 20k, etc., up to 125k). Any positive job growth triggers resolution in multiple markets. "If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 0 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the total non-farm payroll employment change reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Monthly Employment Situation Report for September 2026. The event uses a tiered threshold structure with twelve distinct levels ranging from -25,000 to 125,000 jobs. Each threshold represents a separate resolution point; if the reported employment change exceeds any given threshold, that market resolves to Yes. The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected data release date. The actual reported figure determines which thresholds are exceeded and thus which markets resolve affirmatively.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on models and economic indicators, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. This can lead to divergences, particularly when unexpected events or shifts in sentiment occur. The current implied probability in this market, based on volume of $36,155, may differ from the consensus estimates published by major financial institutions. It’s a valuable tool for comparing diverse viewpoints on the September jobs report and assessing potential forecast biases.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise from several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity levels, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing market structures and fee schedules might attract different types of traders. The 24-hour volume on Polymarket is $371, while Kalshi has its own trading activity, contributing to potential price discrepancies. These variations highlight the importance of considering multiple sources of information when evaluating the potential outcome of the September jobs report.

This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be the determining factor. Traders will be looking for the net change in nonfarm payroll employment for September, as reported in that data release. The outcome will be based on the publicly available, finalized figures, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process for this market.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before Oct 3, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as revisions to previous months’ job reports or changes in unemployment claims, could shift trader sentiment. Geopolitical events or major policy announcements related to fiscal or monetary policy could also introduce volatility. Furthermore, statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding their outlook on the labor market could influence trading activity. Any news that alters expectations about economic growth or labor demand has the potential to move the odds in this market.