TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How many jobs added in June?
polymarket
kalshi

How many jobs added in June?

Volume:
$621,771

Above 20,000

 - Kalshi

Above 20,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 20,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$36,626
N/A
N/A
$34,159
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 50,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$36,443
N/A
N/A
$26,353
Settled
Yes
polymarket

50k – 100k

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,039
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 30,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$33,484
N/A
N/A
$29,048
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -25,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$29,256
N/A
N/A
$28,074
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,784
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 10,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$23,083
N/A
N/A
$20,802
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,977
N/A
N/A
$19,458
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0 – 50k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 40,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,981
N/A
N/A
$15,583
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 125,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$93,237
N/A
N/A
$50,063
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 100,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$76,676
N/A
N/A
$47,169
Settled
No
polymarket

200k+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,804
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$52,942
N/A
N/A
$43,832
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 90,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51,343
N/A
N/A
$34,412
Settled
No
polymarket

100k – 150k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,920
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 80,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$44,684
N/A
N/A
$36,546
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 150,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,742
N/A
N/A
$22,110
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 175,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,128
N/A
N/A
$13,047
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 60,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,216
N/A
N/A
$22,218
Settled
No
polymarket

150k – 200k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,242
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents 13 overlapping binary YES conditions on a single metric, while Polymarket structures the same metric as mutually exclusive job-gain brackets plus a separate job-loss binary. The platforms agree on the data source (BLS Employment Situation Summary for June 2026, released July 2, 2026, 8:30 AM ET) but diverge on market segmentation and resolution logic.Hero tip: For unified trading: interpret Kalshi's lowest threshold (>-25,000) as the effective YES condition, making it equivalent to Polymarket's job-gain markets (any outcome except job loss). Monitor both platforms for clarification on whether Kalshi intends a single binary or a multi-tier structure. Use Polymarket's bracket definitions as the reference standard for threshold mapping.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 13 separate YES conditions with thresholds ranging from >-25,000 to >125,000 jobs. All reference BLS nonfarm payroll data for June 2026. No explicit mutual exclusivity or tie-breaking rule. Ambiguous whether all 13 are independent markets or a single market with redundant conditions.
  • Polymarket: Seven distinct markets: (1) binary job loss, (2-6) five mutually exclusive job-gain brackets (0-50k, 50-100k, 100-150k, 150-200k, 200k+), with tie-breaking rule 'resolve to the higher range bracket.' Clear scope and mutual exclusivity. Same BLS data source, same release date.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the increase in total non-farm payroll employment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for June 2026. Each market resolves to Yes if the reported employment change is above the specified threshold. Markets close at 8:29 AM ET on the expected data release date.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity for the June jobs report across Polymarket and Kalshi. It tracks how prediction market participants are pricing the likelihood of different employment outcomes for June 2026. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, you see consensus views on job creation ranges and identify where market confidence is strongest. The dashboard updates continuously as traders adjust positions based on economic data, Fed signals, and labor-market indicators, giving you a live pulse of market-implied probabilities versus traditional analyst forecasts.

Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from thousands of traders with real money at stake, often revealing different expectations than consensus economist surveys. For the June jobs report, market participants on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing job-creation scenarios based on their own assessment of labor-market momentum, Fed policy, and seasonal adjustments. While traditional forecasters rely on models and historical patterns, prediction markets incorporate breaking news, earnings calls, and real-time sentiment. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are more bullish or bearish on employment growth than the median Wall Street estimate.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and market-making strategies. Kalshi and Polymarket may frame the June jobs question differently—for example, one platform focuses on whether jobs exceed a specific threshold, while another prices a range outcome. Regulatory constraints, fee structures, and user bases also vary between venues. Additionally, traders on one platform may have faster access to breaking economic data or different risk appetites. These structural differences create temporary price gaps that sophisticated traders exploit, though both platforms ultimately converge toward the true outcome as the June employment report approaches.

Key catalysts include monthly jobless claims data, Fed policy announcements, inflation reports, and corporate earnings guidance on hiring plans. Unexpected recessions, geopolitical shocks, or major policy changes could sharply shift market expectations for June employment. Weekly initial jobless claims trending higher or lower will influence traders' confidence in job-creation momentum. Additionally, May's jobs report—released before June's—will anchor market pricing and potentially trigger repricing across both platforms. Real-time labor-market indicators like job postings, quit rates, and wage growth will also drive incremental adjustments as June approaches.