TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 30, 12:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the activity level of the International Monetary Fund's official account on a social media platform over a specific week. It categorizes outcomes based on how frequently the account shares content, allowing observers to gauge expected communication patterns from an influential economic institution.
The event resolves based on the total number of posts, quote posts, and reposts (excluding replies) made by the @IMFNews account on X during the period from Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Each market corresponds to a specific range of activity levels, with one market for posts below 11, several markets covering ranges between 11 and 35 posts, and one market for posts above 35. Resolution will be determined using the X API, which captures all qualifying posts—including those later deleted—provided they were posted long enough to be registered by the API’s five-minute polling cycle. All numeric ranges are inclusive of both their upper and lower bounds. A third-party tracking page is provided for informational purposes only and does not override the official API data.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced view shaped by real-time trading activity. While analysts may offer estimates based on historical patterns, traders on Kalshi adjust positions daily as new economic signals emerge, sometimes showing higher or lower expectations depending on recent events.
This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual number of IMF posts for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count is compared against the market’s defined categories to determine the winning position. No further interpretation beyond published records is applied.
Key signals that could shift this market include official IMF announcements, changes in the organization’s speaking schedule, major global economic events that affect communication priorities, and any unexpected disruptions to regular posting patterns. Each update may cause traders on Kalshi to adjust positions, impacting the odds and price dynamics before resolution.