How many House votes to expel Eric Swalwell?

On Kalshi, the market is priced around 0.0% for the top outcome: how many House members will vote Yea on a House Resolution to expel Representative Eric Swalwell. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell contracts reflecting their belief in the final vote count, with prices updating continuously as political developments unfold. The contract structure allows precise betting on the specific threshold of votes needed, rather than a simple yes-or-no expulsion outcome. Volume and liquidity on this contract help ensure fair price discovery.

The market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the official House vote count on any resolution to expel Representative Eric Swalwell that reaches a floor vote by that date. The outcome depends on whether such a resolution is introduced, scheduled, and voted upon during the market's active period. If no expulsion vote occurs before the deadline, the market will resolve according to the specified contingency rules. Traders should monitor House legislative calendars and committee actions for signals of movement toward a formal vote.

Key catalysts include formal introduction of an expulsion resolution in the House, committee hearings or investigations into Swalwell's conduct, statements from House leadership on party support, and media coverage of underlying allegations. Changes in House composition through special elections or membership changes could shift vote counts. Procedural developments—such as scheduling a floor vote or withdrawing a resolution—would directly impact market pricing. Political shifts, new revelations, or statements from Swalwell himself may also influence trader expectations about the final vote tally and likelihood of expulsion reaching the floor.