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How many House Representatives will be expelled before June?
kalshi

How many House Representatives will be expelled before June?

Volume:
$22,216

0

 - Kalshi

0 - Kalshi

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 1, 9:59 AM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,907
N/A
N/A
$5,578
Settled
Yes
kalshi

2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,511
N/A
N/A
$788
Settled
No
kalshi

1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,021
N/A
N/A
$870
Settled
No
kalshi

4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$676
N/A
N/A
$514
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
$51
Settled
No
kalshi

3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether any U.S. House Representatives will face expulsion before June 2026, an exceptionally rare congressional action requiring a two-thirds majority vote. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that exactly zero representatives will be expelled—stands at 99.0%, while the possibility of exactly two expulsions is at 1.0%. Resolution will be determined by official House records. Watch for any formal expulsion proceedings initiated in the House, as such votes are typically reserved for serious misconduct and would need to conclude before the June 2026 deadline.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets on Kalshi price expulsion risk differently than traditional polling, which rarely measures this outcome directly. Polls typically track approval ratings and legislative priorities rather than formal expulsion proceedings. Prediction market traders incorporate institutional knowledge of House rules, recent ethics investigations, and historical precedent—expulsions require a two-thirds supermajority vote and are extraordinarily rare. Market odds reflect traders' assessment of whether political conditions will align to trigger such a vote by June 2026, offering a forward-looking alternative to snapshot polling data.

The market resolves on Aug 30, 2026, capturing all expulsion activity through early June 2026. Resolution is determined by the official count of U.S. House Representatives formally expelled under Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution. Only votes that achieve the required two-thirds supermajority and result in expulsion—not censure, suspension, or resignation—count toward the outcome. The market tracks a specific, verifiable metric with no ambiguity in the underlying data source.

Major catalysts include formal ethics committee investigations, public disclosure of misconduct allegations, and votes on expulsion resolutions in the House. Media coverage of scandals or criminal charges against sitting members could increase expulsion probability. Conversely, resignations, plea deals, or committee decisions to pursue lesser sanctions would reduce it. Changes in House leadership or party control could shift appetite for expulsion votes. Historical precedent shows expulsions are rare; traders will monitor whether any current investigations reach the threshold for formal expulsion proceedings before June 2026.