TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
7 or more
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7 or more - Kalshi
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Resolved Aug 18, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 17, 8:16 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks how many sitting House Democrats will be defeated in their own party's primary elections during the 2026 cycle. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—exactly 3 House Democratic members losing their primary—stands at 20.0%, while exactly 4 members losing their primary is at 18.0%. Resolution will be determined by official primary election results as reported through the 2026 election cycle. Watch the outcomes of competitive Democratic primaries as they unfold through the 2026 primary season, culminating on November 3, 2026, when the general election results will clarify the final count of primary losses.
Kalshi
This market resolves based on the total count of Democratic House incumbents who lose their primary elections in 2026 before November 3. To qualify, a candidate must be running for re-election to the same House seat they currently hold, be running for their current party's nomination, and lose that primary to another candidate. In non-partisan or top-two primary systems, an incumbent who advances to the general election is not considered to have lost, regardless of placement. If concurrent primaries exist for an unexpired term and the next full term, only the full-term primary results count. District changes do not affect eligibility as long as the candidate seeks re-election to the same legislative body.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations rather than traditional polling. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets incorporate ongoing analysis of primary dynamics, incumbent strength, redistricting effects, and fundraising data. Markets typically adjust faster than polls when new information emerges. For this event, traders are pricing in factors like Democratic primary competitiveness, regional variation, and historical patterns of incumbent losses. Comparing market odds to analyst forecasts and historical primary loss rates provides useful context for evaluating the market's implicit assumptions about 2026 Democratic primary outcomes.
The market resolves on Nov 3, 2026, after the 2026 primary election cycle concludes. Resolution is determined by the final count of House Democrats who lose their primary elections during the 2026 cycle. This includes all primary contests where an incumbent or candidate endorsed by the Democratic establishment is defeated by another Democrat or loses to a challenger in a competitive primary. The outcome is objective and verifiable through official election results and authoritative sources tracking primary outcomes across all states and districts.
Key catalysts include shifts in Democratic primary competitiveness, retirements or strategic decisions by incumbents, major redistricting impacts, and changes in intra-party dynamics. Economic conditions, national political polarization, and shifts in voter enthusiasm can affect primary turnout and incumbent vulnerability. High-profile primary challenges, fundraising announcements, and endorsement patterns will signal which Democrats face serious primary threats. Regional factors like demographic change and local political realignment may increase or decrease primary losses. As 2026 approaches, early primary results from special elections and state-level contests will provide real-time data that traders use to refine their probability estimates.
