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How many Florida votes will be cast early in person?
At least 2.5 million
- Kalshi
At least 2.5 million - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Time left: 01d:16h:25m
Will the number of Florida in-person early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election be at least 2.5 million at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks the projected number of Florida voters who will cast their ballots in person during the early voting period for the 2026 general election. The outcome depends on whether official counts meet or exceed specific thresholds by a set deadline. It reflects expectations about voter turnout and participation methods in a key battleground state.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the number of in-person early votes reported by the UF Election Lab for Florida's 2026 general election, as verified at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. The determining figure comes from the headline "In-person early votes" on the Florida page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker. If that page is unavailable, the 'inperson_all' value from the UF Election Lab's early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) is used instead. No updates posted after the 10:00 AM ET cutoff are considered. Each market has a distinct threshold—ranging from 2.2 million to 4 million votes—and resolves to 'Yes' only if the official count meets or exceeds its specific threshold. The structure ensures all outcomes are determined by the same underlying data source and timestamp, with clear fallback procedures for data accessibility.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for Florida’s early voting turnout. While analysts often rely on polling data and historical trends, this market reflects the collective judgment of individuals incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incorporation of unique information by market participants. It’s important to consider both viewpoints when forming your own assessment of the likely number of early votes cast. This market provides a dynamic, real-time assessment that evolves as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. Essentially, the price reflects the probability of a specific outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the volume available at different price points, giving traders insight into potential price movements. This allows for a fluid and responsive pricing mechanism, incorporating new information as it becomes available to participants.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final tally of early in-person votes cast in Florida is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official data released by the Florida Division of Elections or a similarly authoritative source. The market will determine which outcome – the total number of early in-person votes – is closest to the actual count reported by these official sources. Traders will then be settled based on their positions in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Changes in voter turnout expectations based on early polling data or shifts in campaign strategies could influence trading activity. Unexpected news regarding voting access, such as changes to early voting locations or hours, would also likely impact the market. Furthermore, any major political developments or endorsements could shift sentiment and alter the perceived probabilities. Finally, any reports on voter registration numbers or demographic shifts in Florida could also cause movement in this market.
