TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 30, 12:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the social media activity of a major financial institution over a specific week. It measures how often the institution shares updates, quotes, or republishes content on a particular platform during a defined period. The outcome depends entirely on the actual number of such interactions.
If @federalreserve posts, quote posts, and reposts on X below 9 times (not including replies) from Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If @federalreserve posts, quote posts, and reposts on X between 9-11 times (not including replies) from Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If @federalreserve posts, quote posts, and reposts on X between 12-14 times (not including replies) from Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If @federalreserve posts, quote posts, and reposts on X between 15-17 times (not including replies) from Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If @federalreserve posts, quote posts, and reposts on X between 18-20 times (not including replies) from Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If @federalreserve posts, quote posts, and reposts on X above 20 times (not including replies) from Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET through Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations for Fed communication frequency. While analysts may incorporate broader economic indicators, traders in this market react quickly to news, Fed speeches, and market conditions, potentially creating divergence from poll-based or media-derived forecasts.
This market resolves around Jul 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the exact number of Fed posts on X during the referenced week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The count is based on posts originating from verified Fed accounts within the specified timeframe, closing the market definitively.
Several key signals could shift this market before Jul 30, 2026. Official Fed announcements, including press conference schedules or unexpected speeches, may increase posting expectations. Economic data releases affecting monetary policy discussions also play a role. Social media engagement metrics around Fed leaders and major economic headlines can influence trader sentiment. Any surprise changes to the central bank’s communication strategy would likely create rapid price movements as participants reassess likely post volumes for the week.