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How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/2 - 8/8)
kalshi

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/2 - 8/8)

Volume:
$33,858

Above 1

 - Kalshi

Above 1 - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

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Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 22, 2026

Closed: Aug 22, 10:00 AM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,823
N/A
N/A
$5,817
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,204
N/A
N/A
$5,030
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,831
N/A
N/A
$3,539
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This event tracks presidential activity by focusing on how many formal directives a sitting president issues within a specific timeframe. It uses a clear, objective standard to define what counts as a qualifying action, ensuring consistent evaluation across observers. The outcome depends purely on the number of officially recorded directives during the designated dates.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the number of executive orders signed by the President between August 2, 2026 and August 8, 2026. An executive order must be formally titled “Executive Order” followed by a number, signed by the President, published in the Federal Register, and possess the force of law. Executive orders that are later revoked or amended still count if they meet these criteria. The signing date recorded in the Federal Register determines inclusion — even if publication occurs after the period, an order with an appropriate signing date counts. Contracts expire two weeks after the period ends, though expiration may move earlier if relevant orders are published late. Markets with thresholds of 0, 1, or 2 resolve to 'Yes' if the President signs more than the respective threshold number of qualifying executive orders during the specified week.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard displays real-time odds and price trends for the Trump Executive Orders market, alongside 24-hour volume of $0. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different numbers of executive orders being signed this week. The interface updates continuously to reflect market activity and shifts in trader sentiment, giving users a clear view of where the market stands at any moment.

Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than traditional polling averages. While polls may show varied expectations among the public, traders are assigning specific probabilities to each possible count of executive orders based on recent activity and news. The gap highlights how market participants weigh new information differently than general populations.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate expectations of all participants. The market’s probability distribution adjusts dynamically based on trading volume and any new information that influences expectations about executive action counts. This mechanism captures the collective insight of market participants about the range of possible outcomes.

This market resolves around Aug 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact number of executive orders signed during the specified week will determine the winning outcome, based on official government records.

News about the president’s schedule, political priorities, or emerging crises could shift expectations and move this market. Announcements of upcoming policy focuses, legislative setbacks, or strategic shifts may cause traders to adjust their bets. Additionally, high-profile statements from administration officials or changes in political dynamics could influence the perceived likelihood of various executive order counts before Aug 22, 2026.