TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Vol.
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Resolved Sep 16, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 24, 10:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) is a membership-based socialist organization that endorses political candidates at national and local chapter levels. This event tracks how many DSA-endorsed candidates win their federal primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026.
Kalshi
This event measures the electoral success of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, including endorsements from both the national organization and its local chapters, in 2026 federal primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026. Endorsements must be made before a candidate wins their primary to be counted. The event operates across five separate markets, each tied to a different threshold: whether more than 2, 4, 6, 8, or 10 DSA-endorsed candidates win their primaries. Each market independently resolves to Yes upon exceeding its specified threshold, providing multiple data points on DSA's primary election performance. Endorsements granted after a primary victory are excluded from consideration.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and traditional polling often diverge because they measure different things. Polls capture voter preference at a single moment, while this market aggregates trader expectations about actual primary outcomes, incorporating campaign momentum, fundraising, endorsements, and ground organization. Traders have financial incentive to forecast accurately, which can make market odds more responsive to late-breaking developments than polls. However, both tools offer valuable signals—polls show current sentiment, while market prices reflect probabilistic judgments about who will ultimately win.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcome ranges for the number of DSA-endorsed primary winners. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share's price reflects the implied probability that outcome will occur, with higher prices indicating greater trader confidence. As new information emerges—campaign announcements, polling shifts, or primary results—traders adjust their positions, moving the market price to equilibrate supply and demand for each outcome.
This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, after the primary election cycle concludes and results are finalized. The outcome will be determined by counting verified DSA endorsements and cross-referencing them against official primary election results to establish how many endorsed candidates won their races. Resolution is confirmed once the final tally is verifiable from credible public reporting and official election records, ensuring accuracy and transparency for all traders.
Several catalysts could shift this market significantly. Major DSA endorsement announcements or withdrawals would directly change the pool of candidates in play. Primary election results as they roll out will narrow the field and clarify which endorsed candidates remain viable. Polling surges or declines for specific DSA-backed candidates, media coverage of primary races, fundraising milestones, and debate performances can all influence trader expectations. Additionally, unexpected candidate dropouts, strategic coalition shifts, or turnout patterns in key districts could reshape the probability of DSA primary success.
