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364,467

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How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
kalshi
polymarket

How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?

Total volume:
$75,189
Volume 24h:
$325
22%
Liquidity:
$25,959
3%
Open interest:
$40,075
0.52%

Fed maintains rate

 - Kalshi

Fed maintains rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 27, 2027

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?

58%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 58¢ buys you 172 shares | Odds: 58% Total Payout: $172 | Net Profit: $72 Multiplier: 1.72x | ROI: 72% | APY: 318% 139 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fed maintains rate

Trade
58%
Yes 58¢No 45¢
3¢
N/A
$27,589
0.01%
2%
$11,500
4mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

3

Trade
28%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
$5,971
$7,256
0%
2%
N/A
4mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

2

Trade
20%
Yes 21¢No 81¢
2¢
$4,119
$338
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
19%
4%
Yes 27¢No 80¢
7¢
N/A
$12,469
2%
3%
$8,388
4mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

1

Trade
19%
Yes 20¢No 82¢
2¢
$6,114
$508
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

0

Trade
19%
Yes 20¢No 83¢
3¢
$5,449
$1,253
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 2w 5d
active
polymarket

4+

Trade
15%
Yes 15.5¢No 85.3¢
0.8¢
$4,307
$498
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

Trade
14%
4%
Yes 16¢No 96¢
12¢
N/A
$10,989
0.92%
2%
$8,855
4mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Cut >25bps

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 98¢
3¢
N/A
$8,106
0%
0.23%
$5,855
4mo 2w 5d
active
kalshi

Hike >25bps

Trade
3%
Yes 10¢No 98¢
8¢
N/A
$6,184
0%
0%
$5,478
4mo 2w 5d
active
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group tracks the number of dissenting votes at the January 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting regarding the Fed Funds Rate decision. The outcome depends on how many members of the FOMC vote against the majority decision on interest rates.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence between binary outcome (Kalshi) and count-based resolution (Polymarket)Hero tip: Monitor Polymarket's count-specific markets and cross-check with Kalshi's binary outcome. Divergence creates arbitrage opportunities if the count differs from the binary result.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on exact number of dissenting votes (0, 1, 2, 3, or 4+). Question-specific markets for each count.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if ANY dissent occurs (1+), No if zero dissent. Ignores count beyond presence/absence.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 26-27, 2027. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 27, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the January Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes for exactly one outcome based on the Federal Reserve's action on January 27, 2027. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: a cut greater than 25 basis points, a 25 basis point cut, maintaining the rate at 0 basis points change, a 25 basis point hike, or a hike greater than 25 basis points. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, the "Fed maintains rate" outcome resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No. Only one outcome can resolve to Yes per meeting.

Frequently asked questions

The Fed dissent market dashboard aggregates predictions across platforms for the number of dissenting votes at the January Federal Reserve meeting. It shows how traders on Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of various outcomes in the short_topic. You can see current probabilities, volume of $75,189, and 24-hour volume of $325 to gauge market interest and sentiment as the event approaches.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user base, liquidity, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might have more active traders focusing on macro policy bets, while another could see tighter spreads from institutional participation. These dynamics create price gaps, with 28.5% on Polymarket and 58.0% on Kalshi, reflecting distinct market perspectives until consensus forms.

This market resolves around Jan 27, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official Federal Reserve statement and meeting minutes will determine the number of dissents, closing this market based on publicly recorded decisions from the Federal Open Market Committee.

Key signals include upcoming economic data releases, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and shifts in inflation or employment trends. Any indication of policy divergence among committee members — through interviews or leaked insights — could also move this market. Traders will watch these cues closely as they refine expectations for dissent levels before the meeting concludes.