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How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
polymarket

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

Volume:
$64,783

20–23

 - Polymarket

20–23 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 8:21 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20–23

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,206
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<20

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,459
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24–27

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32–35

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,307
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36–39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40+

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28–31

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity on Polymarket for this event, which centers on the count of Democratic House members who choose not to seek reelection in 2026. It displays the current probability of key outcomes, historical price movements, and trading volume data. The market has generated $64,783 in total trading activity, reflecting sustained interest in forecasting Democratic House retirements. Users can monitor how odds shift as the 2026 cycle approaches and political developments unfold.

Prediction markets on Polymarket price Democratic House retirement expectations based on trader consensus and real-money incentives, which often diverge from traditional polling. Polls typically measure voter sentiment or generic congressional approval, whereas prediction markets aggregate expectations about actual retirement filings and candidate decisions. Market odds reflect forward-looking bets on concrete outcomes—how many sitting Democrats will announce they are not running—rather than snapshot surveys. This makes prediction markets particularly useful for tracking evolving retirement dynamics as the cycle develops.

The market is scheduled to resolve on Aug 31, 2026, providing a clear endpoint for trading and settlement. Resolution will be determined by the final count of Democratic House members who do not run for reelection in 2026. This includes retirements, members who switch chambers or pursue other offices, and those who are no longer eligible to serve. The specific resolution criteria ensure that outcomes are tied to verifiable, official records of candidate filings and announcements.

Several catalysts could shift market odds significantly. Major political upheaval, shifts in House control, or changes in party leadership could influence retirement decisions. Redistricting outcomes and seat competitiveness assessments will shape member calculations about reelection viability. Retirements often cluster around key announcement windows, so filing deadlines and early retirement waves will trigger repricing. Economic conditions, legislative achievements or failures, and national political momentum heading into 2026 will all factor into member decisions. Individual high-profile announcements from senior or vulnerable Democrats can move the market substantially.