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How many Codex resets week of October 26?
polymarket

How many Codex resets week of October 26?

Volume:
$2,978

4+

 - Polymarket

4+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 8:57 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

4+

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$864
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,213
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$440
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$233
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$228
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on October 26, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on November 1, 2026. Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total. A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences. Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted. An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945. This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on October 26, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on November 1, 2026. Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total. A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences. Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted. An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945. This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Codex resets market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the number of weekly usage limit resets for Codex during the week of October 26. You can see the implied probability of each outcome, along with the 24-hour trading volume of $696 and the total volume traded to date of $2,633. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential opportunities based on how others are pricing the likelihood of different reset counts. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the market's activity.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of four or more Codex weekly usage limit resets occurring during the week of October 26. This contrasts with initial analyst expectations, which were more uncertain, forecasting a wider range of possible reset counts. The market’s current pricing reflects a strong belief among traders that Codex usage will necessitate multiple resets to maintain optimal performance. It’s important to remember that prediction market odds represent a collective forecast, potentially incorporating information not readily available to traditional analysts.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the market’s collective assessment of the likelihood of different numbers of Codex resets. The market depth, visible on the dashboard, shows the volume of shares available at various price points, providing insight into potential price movements.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual number of Codex weekly usage limit resets during the week of October 26 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding Codex usage and the implementation of weekly resets. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased shares correspond to the correct outcome. The market’s resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result.

Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market before resolution. Unexpected announcements regarding changes to Codex’s usage policies or infrastructure could significantly impact the number of required resets. A surge in Codex usage, driven by a popular new application or a large influx of users, would likely increase the probability of more resets. Conversely, a decrease in usage could lower that probability. Monitoring news related to Codex development, user adoption, and any official statements from the project team will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.