TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.6b
24H VOL:
$156,130,290
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,799,919,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,782,923,786
501,315
Markets across
37,757
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,847
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Closed: Oct 19, 2:01 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on October 12, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on October 18, 2026. Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total. A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences. Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted. An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945. This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on October 12, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on October 18, 2026. Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total. A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences. Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted. An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945. This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. The current price indicates what the market believes is the most likely number of Codex resets during the specified week, and the volume traded shows the level of interest in this particular event.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual number of Codex weekly usage limit resets during the week of October 12 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the number of resets that occurred, ensuring transparency and accuracy. The outcome will be determined by a clear count of the resets, allowing for a definitive conclusion to this market.
Several signals or events could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding changes to Codex's usage policies, unexpected surges in user activity, or technical issues affecting the platform could all shift trader sentiment. Announcements from the Codex team regarding planned resets or adjustments to the weekly limit would be particularly impactful. Monitoring these factors and their potential effect on Codex usage is key to understanding potential movements in this market.