TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 5
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At least 5 - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 16, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 23, 11:41 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates will suffer primary election defeats during the 2026 cycle. On Kalshi, the probability that at least 5 AIPAC-endorsed candidates lose their primaries between April 10 and September 16, 2026 stands at 55.0%. The secondary outcome—at least 10 such losses—is priced at 20.0%. Resolution will be determined by official primary election results reported between those dates, with final settlement expected by mid-December 2026.
Kalshi
Endorsements are determined by inclusion on the AIPAC PAC featured candidates page at https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/. A candidate counts as endorsed only if listed on the page AND the page allows donations through the AIPAC PAC at the time of the primary; candidates marked as non-donatable (such as those retiring, running for another office, deceased, or otherwise ineligible) are excluded. Primary elections include runoffs and top-two/jungle primaries. Candidates withdrawing before the primary are not counted as losses, but those advancing past a top-two primary and then withdrawing are counted as losses. Only primaries held after April 10, 2026 and before September 16, 2026 are included.
Frequently asked questions
The market resolves on Dec 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by counting how many AIPAC PAC-endorsed candidates lose their primary elections during the specified window from April 10, 2026 through September 16, 2026. The outcome hinges on whether that count reaches or exceeds 5. Primary results are official once state election authorities certify them, providing the factual basis for final settlement.
Key catalysts include primary election results as they occur throughout spring and summer 2026, shifts in candidate fundraising and endorsements, grassroots mobilization efforts, and polling movements in competitive races. Unexpected primary upsets or dominant victories by AIPAC-backed candidates will reshape trader expectations. Media coverage of pro-Israel policy debates, demographic shifts in primary electorates, and turnout patterns in early contests will all influence whether traders expect the threshold of 5 losses to be crossed. Real-time primary outcomes drive the most significant price movements.
