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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)
polymarket

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

Volume:
$268,222

10

 - Polymarket

10 - Polymarket

1W

News

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Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

10

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$26,550
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

≤8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,392
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,583
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,053
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,314
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,173
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,157
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks the total count of earthquakes measuring 7.0 magnitude or higher occurring worldwide during a seven-month window. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—eight or fewer such earthquakes by June 30, 2026—stands at 59.0%, while exactly nine earthquakes is priced at 29.0%. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program serves as the official resolution source. Watch for significant seismic activity as the June 30, 2026 deadline approaches, since any major earthquake occurrence during the tracking period will directly influence the final count and market settlement.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations about global seismic activity through Jun 30, 2026. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts from seismological institutions, which rely on historical frequency and geological models, prediction markets incorporate real-time information and financial incentives for accuracy. Traders continuously adjust prices based on emerging earthquake data, research publications, and tectonic activity patterns. This dynamic pricing often captures forward-looking sentiment faster than static analyst estimates, though both approaches inform participants seeking to understand earthquake probability distributions.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, at which point the final count of magnitude 7.0 or above earthquakes occurring worldwide during the prediction period is determined. Resolution hinges on verified seismic data from authoritative sources such as the U.S. Geological Survey and international seismic networks. The exact outcome—whether the count matches the specified strike of 11 earthquakes—will be confirmed against official earthquake catalogs and magnitude assessments. Traders holding positions in the winning outcome receive payouts proportional to their stake.

Major seismic events directly influence odds for this earthquake prediction market. Any magnitude 7.0 or above earthquake occurring before Jun 30, 2026 tightens the remaining probability space and shifts trader expectations about the final count. Volcanic activity, tectonic stress releases, and aftershock sequences in active zones can trigger rapid repricing. Additionally, updated geological forecasts, changes in seismic monitoring data, and scientific publications on fault rupture potential may prompt traders to adjust positions. As the resolution date nears, each new earthquake narrows uncertainty and reshapes market sentiment around the exact 11-earthquake threshold.