How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 28 - October 4?

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome – the number of 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes. As more traders buy shares in a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence in that scenario. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price essentially represents the implied probability of each outcome, based on the collective actions of all participants. The current volume is $9,450 with $2,144 traded in the last 24 hours.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater that occurred worldwide between September 28 and October 4 will be determined by reviewing data from established seismological agencies. The final count will be sourced from these publicly available records, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome. The outcome will be based on the official magnitude reported by these agencies.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. A series of smaller earthquakes, even if below magnitude 6.5, might increase overall awareness and potentially lead traders to anticipate a higher probability of a larger event. Conversely, a period of seismic quiet could decrease confidence in a higher earthquake count. News reports about unusual geological activity or expert commentary on earthquake probabilities could also influence trading activity. Finally, any revisions to historical earthquake data or improvements in forecasting models might also impact the market.