TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 12 - October 18?
polymarket

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 12 - October 18?

Volume:
$15,212

3

 - Polymarket

3 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 12:45 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,940
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,506
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,822
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

more than 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$821
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$695
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Frequently asked questions

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Currently, the question is whether the number of 6.5 or above magnitude earthquakes worldwide between October 12th and 18th will be zero, one, two, or more. While traditional earthquake forecasts rely on seismological data and modeling, this market aggregates the insights of many individuals, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives risks or opportunities differently than established experts.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders enter the market, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's liquidity, indicated by the trading volume, influences how quickly prices respond to new information or shifts in sentiment. The current top outcome, as indicated by the highest share price, is 'Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?'.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or above that occurred worldwide between October 12th and October 18th will be used to determine the winning outcome. Data will be sourced from established earthquake monitoring agencies and geological surveys to ensure accuracy and reliability. The resolution will reflect the objectively recorded number of qualifying seismic events during the specified timeframe.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. A major earthquake occurring within the specified timeframe would obviously have a substantial impact, increasing the probability of outcomes involving one or more earthquakes. Conversely, a period of seismic quiet could strengthen the likelihood of the 'zero earthquakes' outcome. News reports about increased or decreased seismic activity in known earthquake zones, or updates from geological surveys regarding potential risks, could also influence trading activity and shift the market's probabilities. Any significant geological event could impact this market.