TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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How low will US gas prices get in September?
kalshi

How low will US gas prices get in September?

Sep 1, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Oct 2, 2026, 12:14 AM EST
Total volume:
$8,192
Volume 24h:
$3,773
481%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$6,619
65%

Below $4.00

 - Kalshi

Below $4.00 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 2, 2026

Time left: 21d:19h:08m

Will average gas prices go below $4.00 by Sep 30, 2026?

16%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 68¢ buys you 147 shares | Odds: 16% Total Payout: $147 | Net Profit: $47 Multiplier: 1.47x | ROI: 47% APY not meaningful 21 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Below $4.00

Trade
16%
39%
Yes 68¢No 99¢
67¢
N/A
$546
99%
0%
$475
3w 19h
active
kalshi

Below $3.65

Trade
10%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
4¢
N/A
$1,020
0%
0%
$1,020
3w 19h
active
kalshi

Below $3.85

Trade
9%
20%
Yes 51¢No 99¢
50¢
N/A
$623
240%
0%
$603
3w 19h
active
kalshi

Below $3.75

Trade
8%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$836
165%
0%
$606
3w 19h
active
kalshi

Below $3.90

Trade
8%
32%
Yes 59¢No 99¢
58¢
N/A
$778
147%
0%
$627
3w 19h
active
kalshi

Below $3.80

Trade
5%
7%
Yes 8¢No 96¢
4¢
N/A
$1,920
42%
652%
$1,235
3w 19h
active
kalshi

Below $3.95

Trade
5%
41%
Yes 63¢No 99¢
62¢
N/A
$906
365%
0%
$850
3w 19h
active
kalshi

Below $3.60

Trade
3%
9%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$625
92%
0%
$325
3w 19h
active
kalshi

Below $3.70

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$939
116%
28,357%
$878
3w 19h
active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks potential decreases in the national average regular gasoline price in the U.S. during September 2026. The focus is on how external factors like supply, demand, and seasonal changes might influence fuel costs throughout the month.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether the AAA-reported national average regular gas price in the U.S. falls below specified thresholds at any point from the issuance date through September 30, 2026. Multiple markets exist for different price levels, each with a distinct threshold ranging from $4.00 down to $3.60. If the price dips below any of these thresholds during the specified period, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The outcome for each market is determined solely by whether the price crosses its particular threshold at any time within the window, with no additional conditions or calculations applied.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced outlook that incorporates real-time data and trader sentiment. While analysts may issue broad projections based on economic models, the market price captures the aggregated guesswork of many participants. This can lead to differences when sudden events — like supply disruptions or policy changes — shift expectations quickly. Monitoring both sources helps identify potential shifts in market direction.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the market price reflecting the most recent trade execution. The top outcome’s probability is expressed as a percentage, derived from the price of that outcome relative to the total possible payout. This mechanism allows rapid adjustment to new information, with liquidity levels influencing how tightly prices are packed.

This market resolves around Oct 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The closing price on the specified settlement date will be compared against official data sources to determine the lowest recorded US gas price for September. The process ensures an objective, transparent resolution based on publicly available information.

Several signals could shift this market before it resolves, including unexpected changes in oil supply, shifts in seasonal demand, geopolitical developments affecting crude prices, or government policies influencing refinery operations. Additionally, severe weather events that disrupt transportation or storage could cause temporary spikes or dips in gas prices, prompting rapid market reactions. Traders will also watch inventory reports and consumer demand trends for early indicators.