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How high will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?
kalshi

How high will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?

Sep 30, 2026, 11:00 AM EST - Nov 1, 2026, 12:14 AM EST
Total volume:
$94,776
Volume 24h:
$9,318
1,468%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$41,296
8%

Above $4.45

 - Kalshi

Above $4.45 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Time left: 08d:06h:21m

Will average gas prices go above $4.45 by Oct 31, 2026?

8%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 13¢ buys you 769 shares | Odds: 8% Total Payout: $769 | Net Profit: $669 Multiplier: 7.69x | ROI: 669% APY not meaningful 8 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $4.45

Trade
8%
Yes 13¢No 93¢
6¢
N/A
$19,638
2%
35%
$7,044
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $4.50

Trade
6%
5%
Yes 10¢No 97¢
7¢
N/A
$30,369
3%
210%
$8,868
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $4.70

Trade
4%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$5,097
0%
70%
$2,806
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $4.85

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$600
0%
0%
$400
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $4.60

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$10,405
38%
53%
$5,235
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $4.95

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$8,132
0%
136%
$7,832
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $4.65

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$7,483
0.05%
373%
$1,413
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $4.55

Trade
2%
Yes 7¢No 98¢
5¢
N/A
$4,433
0%
19%
$2,267
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $4.90

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$3,952
0%
0%
$3,352
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $4.75

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$3,862
0%
43%
$1,583
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $4.80

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$806
0%
0%
$497
1w 1d 6h
active
kalshi

Above $5.00

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
active
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks potential fluctuations in U.S. gasoline costs during October 2026. It focuses on whether the national average price for regular gas will surpass various thresholds throughout the month. The outcome depends on real-time pricing data reported by a recognized authority.

Kalshi

If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.45 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.50 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.55 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.60 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.65 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.70 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.75 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.80 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.85 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.90 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.95 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $5.00 at any time from October 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the US gas price market tracks the current price of contracts, reflecting predictions about the national average price of gasoline in October 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how predictions have changed over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $4,221. The total volume traded on this market is $94,776. This allows participants to see how much activity there is and the overall interest in predicting future gas prices.

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing views on US gas prices that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments than typical surveys or reports. Comparing this market to those forecasts can offer a broader perspective on potential price movements.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts that pay out $1 if the actual US gas price in October 2026 falls within a specific range, and $0 otherwise. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest insights.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the national average retail price for regular gasoline will be determined using data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA is a widely recognized and trusted source for energy statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. The final price reported by the EIA for October 2026 will determine the payout of contracts in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 1, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil production or international conflicts, could cause substantial price swings. Changes in global demand, driven by economic growth or recessions, will also play a role. Additionally, shifts in US energy policy, unexpected refinery outages, or even severe weather events impacting oil infrastructure could all move this market. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for understanding the evolving predictions reflected in contract prices.