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516,586

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How high will softwood lumber PPI get before 2027?
kalshi

How high will softwood lumber PPI get before 2027?

Oct 15, 2026, 4:45 PM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$21,101
Volume 24h:
$1N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$8,795
0%

Above 190

 - Kalshi

Above 190 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Softwood lumber PPI above 190 before 2027?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 5% Illiquid market 69 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 190

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 2¢
2¢
N/A
$19,602
0%
0%
$7,802
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 290

Trade
92%
Yes 99¢No 99¢
98¢
N/A
$165
0.12%
N/A
$165
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 300

Trade
24%
Yes 24¢No 99¢
23¢
N/A
$1,334
0.03%
7%
$828
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 310

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 320

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 330

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 2d
active
Total markets: 6

Description

These markets track potential future increases in the U.S. Producer Price Index for softwood lumber, using a specific statistical measure published monthly. Each market has a different threshold value that, if exceeded at any qualifying publication time before the end of 2026, determines the outcome.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index for softwood lumber (series WPU0811, not seasonally adjusted). Each market has a unique threshold (190, 290, 300, 310, 320, or 330 index points). The market resolves to 'Yes' if, in any initial monthly publication released strictly after the market's issuance and before January 1, 2027, the index value exceeds the respective threshold. Only the first publication of each month counts—revisions or corrections are ignored. Publications occurring at or after the deadline or before issuance do not qualify. The outcome is determined solely by the original BLS-reported value, using the precision provided without additional rounding. If no qualifying publication exceeds the threshold by the deadline, the market resolves to 'No', subject to standard contingencies for data unavailability or market review.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the softwood lumber PPI market tracks the current price, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $1 and the total volume traded to date is $21,101. You’ll also find a visual representation of how the price has fluctuated over time, allowing you to assess market sentiment. The top outcome currently being predicted is whether the Softwood lumber PPI will be above 330 before 2027, though probabilities are not currently displayed.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions in this market to external analyst forecasts, as the question of where the softwood lumber PPI will land by 2027 is subject to considerable uncertainty. Traditional forecasts often rely on economic models and historical data, while this market reflects the collective judgment of traders responding to new information and their own risk assessments. The wisdom of the crowd may offer a different perspective than those found in typical industry reports, potentially highlighting overlooked factors influencing the price of softwood lumber.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the softwood lumber PPI will reach a certain level before Jan 1, 2027. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater probability of the event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregate expectation of all participants, and provides a real-time assessment of market sentiment regarding future lumber prices.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the highest reported Softwood Lumber Producer Price Index (PPI) value before that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The PPI data will be sourced from official government publications and industry reports to determine if the index reached a specific threshold. The resolution process focuses on identifying the peak PPI value, providing a clear and objective determination of the market's outcome.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Changes in housing market activity, particularly new construction and remodeling, are key drivers of lumber demand. Supply chain disruptions, such as transportation bottlenecks or mill closures, could also influence prices. Additionally, shifts in government policies related to forestry or trade, and broader economic conditions like inflation and interest rates, could all move this market. Unexpected weather events impacting lumber production regions could also play a role in price fluctuations between now and Jan 1, 2027.