TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30?
polymarket

How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30?

Volume:
$273,354

80%

 - Polymarket

80% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

80%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$126,894
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

75%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$19,031
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

70%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,473
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

85%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$58,974
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$49,982
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Polymarket will achieve specified levels of user mindshare in the prediction market space by mid-2026. On Polymarket, the probability that mindshare reaches 85% stands at 36.5%, while the probability of hitting 90% is at 12.5%. Resolution will be determined by daily mindshare data from the Kaito Information Markets Arena page, which tracks Polymarket's market dominance as a percentage. Watch for significant shifts in user activity and trading volume on competing platforms leading up to the June 30, 2026 deadline, as these factors will directly influence whether Polymarket achieves the specified mindshare thresholds.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released. The resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets), which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution is determined by whether Polymarket's mindshare reaches 80% by that date. Mindshare is typically measured through metrics such as user base size, trading volume share, or market activity relative to competing prediction market platforms. The specific measurement methodology and data sources used to determine the final outcome are established in the market's resolution criteria, which traders review before participating. Once the resolution date arrives, the outcome is finalized based on verified data, and winning positions are settled accordingly.

Key catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting prediction markets, major platform upgrades or feature launches by Polymarket, changes in user adoption or trading volume, competitive moves by rival platforms, and macroeconomic events influencing retail participation in prediction markets. Positive developments such as expanded market offerings, partnerships, or regulatory clarity could increase bullish sentiment and push odds higher. Conversely, security incidents, regulatory restrictions, or loss of market share to competitors could lower the probability. Media coverage of Polymarket's growth or market dominance will also influence trader expectations. Tracking these signals helps market participants assess whether the 80% mindshare threshold remains achievable by June 30.