TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.3b
24H VOL:
$107,419,736
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,594,026,835
471,138
Markets across
35,775
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,926
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
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Above $87,500.00
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 1, 2026
Related News
Time left: 16d:23h:28m
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026?
$
Intro
This market tracks the probability of Bitcoin’s price reaching specified levels by the end of October 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Bitcoin’s trimmed mean being above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026 is 36.0%, with a 23.0% probability for it being above $90000.00 by the same date. This aggregated view combines data from Opinion and Kalshi, and will resolve based on whether the price of BTC ever exceeds $102500.00 through 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026, as defined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024, as it historically impacts BTC price trends.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets resolve on *any* breach of a threshold, while Opinion markets directly ask about reaching specific price points, creating a difference in implied probability.Hero tip: Consider the differing formats when trading. Kalshi's 'ever above' logic is different from Opinion's direct price point questions. Adjust your positions accordingly.Critical divergence points:
- kalshi: Resolves to Yes if BTC *ever* exceeds a specified threshold through 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026. "If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026 is ever above $85000.00, then the market resolves to Yes."
- opinion: Presents questions directly asking if BTC will reach a specific price. "Question: ↑ 150,000"
Kalshi
The event determines if Bitcoin's price exceeds various thresholds between October 2026 issuance and October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For each market, the primary rule states that if Bitcoin's price is ever above the specified threshold during this period, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. Settlement relies on minute-by-minute price data from CF Benchmarks Reference Rate Index (CF BRTI). To mitigate the impact of extreme price volatility, each minute's settlement value is calculated by trimming the top 20% and bottom 20% of all collected minute-by-minute prices and averaging the remaining values. If this trimmed mean exceeds the threshold at any minute, the market resolves to 'Yes'. The measurement period begins at issuance and ends at the specified expiration time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, all affected markets resolve to 'No'. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the exchange specifies the exact version or ticker being tracked.
Opinion
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if, during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date), any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT reaches the price specified in the title in the specified direction — for an "above" market, a final "High" price equal to or greater than that price; for a "below" market, a final "Low" price equal to or less than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
