TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 19, 6:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether the price of BNB, a cryptocurrency, will surpass specific thresholds at any point in 2026. The outcome depends on real-time price data filtered to reduce volatility effects, providing a clear measure of significant price milestones.
The event evaluates multiple price thresholds for BNB throughout the year 2026, resolving to 'Yes' if the price exceeds any specified level at any moment up to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Each minute during the market period, the price is measured using minute-by-minute data from CF BNBUSD_RTI. To mitigate the influence of extreme fluctuations, the top and bottom 20% of price data points are excluded, and the average of the remaining values (trimmed mean) is calculated. If this trimmed mean surpasses the threshold for any given minute, the market resolves to 'Yes.' Should CF Benchmarks data be unavailable or incomplete by the expiration date, all affected markets resolve to 'No.' The specific BNB version or ticker is predetermined by the Exchange.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds offer a real-time aggregate of trader sentiment and betting behavior. While analysts may publish target prices or percentage moves, this market reflects crowd-sourced expectations that can shift rapidly with news, macroeconomic data, or exchange updates. The current implied probability on Kalshi can diverge noticeably from consensus forecasts, providing a complementary view of market confidence.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the most likely price range as judged by participants. Market depth and liquidity, indicated by a volume of $25,960, help set tight spreads. The platform’s pricing mechanism updates instantly, allowing users to see how new information influences odds before Jan 1, 2027.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be compared against the defined threshold, and the result will be finalized according to Kalshi's standard verification process at that time.
Several signals could shift expectations in this market before it resolves. Major announcements from Binance, regulatory developments affecting Binance Coin, or broad cryptocurrency market rallies may boost probabilities for higher price outcomes. Conversely, macroeconomic slowdowns, exchange-specific issues, or negative sentiment could push odds toward lower projections. Traders will watch on-chain metrics, trading volumes, and key support/resistance levels for early clues.