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Will Hormuz Island no longer be under Iranian control by August 31, 2026?
August 31
- Polymarket
August 31 - Polymarket
0.9%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Aug 18
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Aug 25
Aug 25
Vol.
$2.1k
·
Resolves Sep 1, 2026
Latest in World
Time left: 06d:04h:35m
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
$
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because traders incorporate real-time information and face direct financial incentives for accuracy. While geopolitical analysts may issue periodic reports on regional stability and territorial disputes, this market aggregates thousands of individual trader bets into a single probability estimate. The market-derived odds tend to reflect broader consensus when major developments occur, though analysts sometimes flag risks that traders have not yet fully priced in. Comparing the two reveals gaps in how different groups assess the likelihood of territorial change.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by all active traders. As new information emerges—diplomatic statements, military movements, or international agreements—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down. This continuous price discovery process ensures the odds remain responsive to changing geopolitical conditions throughout the trading period.
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether Hormuz Island remains under Iranian control or has transitioned to different governance by that date. Credible news sources, official government statements, and international monitoring bodies will provide the factual basis for determining the final outcome. Traders should monitor developments closely as the deadline approaches to adjust positions based on emerging evidence.
Major catalysts include military escalations in the Persian Gulf, diplomatic negotiations between Iran and regional or global powers, and shifts in international sanctions policy. Naval incidents, statements from U.S. or allied officials regarding regional strategy, and changes in Iranian government rhetoric can all trigger sharp price movements. Economic pressures, energy market disruptions, or formal territorial disputes filed with international bodies would also influence trader positioning. Additionally, any credible reports of military action or territorial transfers would likely cause rapid repricing as traders reassess the probability of control changing hands.