TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 12:37 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market assesses the potential strength of Labour's performance in a future by-election, focusing on how decisively they might win by comparing their vote share against the nearest rival. The outcome depends on whether their lead meets or exceeds specific percentage thresholds.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, defined as Labour's vote share minus the vote share of the candidate finishing immediately behind them if Labour wins, or the candidate finishing first if Labour loses. A positive margin indicates a Labour victory, while a negative margin indicates a loss, and a zero margin applies if Labour ties for first place. Each market has a specific threshold (ranging from 5% to 40%), and the market resolves to Yes only if Labour's margin meets or exceeds that threshold. No rounding is applied to the margin, and each threshold includes its lower bound up to a maximum possible margin of 100 percentage points. If an exact tie for first place remains unresolved by the expiration time, any market whose range includes zero will receive a proportional payout as specified in the full rules, while all other ranges resolve to No. Certified election results, provisions for fully-conducted elections, and any accelerated resolution processes outlined in the full rules will also apply.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Holborn and St Pancras election. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a real-money assessment of potential outcomes. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently than analysts, or where traders believe polls may be inaccurate. It's important to consider both sources when forming a comprehensive view of the election's likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes in the Holborn and St Pancras election. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market constantly adjusts to new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final result of the Holborn and St Pancras election, as officially declared by the relevant electoral authorities, will determine the winner and the margin of victory. The market will settle based on this official declaration, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should note this timeframe for managing their positions and understanding when final payouts will be calculated.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaign, such as significant policy announcements from candidates, unexpected endorsements, or impactful debate performances, could all shift market sentiment. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in voter preferences, are also likely to cause movement. Finally, any unforeseen events that affect voter turnout or public opinion, such as major news stories or economic shifts, could influence trading activity and alter the odds in this market.
