TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 12:43 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of the Restore Britain party in a specific parliamentary by-election. It measures whether the party achieves various minimum vote share thresholds in the final certified results. The outcome depends entirely on the official vote count conducted after the election.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the certified percentage of votes received by Restore Britain in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, calculated as (votes received ÷ total valid votes) × 100, rounded. Each market has a different threshold requirement ranging from 1% to 8%, with higher-threshold markets being more restrictive. The percentage is determined using official or certified results, with write-in votes counted and invalid/spoiled ballots excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur, the specified round or first round applies. Recounts that change the certified percentage before market expiration use the most recent certified figure. Unofficial results may only be used under specific provisions for fully-conducted elections.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Polls capture a snapshot of opinion at a given time, while this market aggregates the views of a diverse group of traders who continuously update their predictions based on new information. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, weighting, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of data, including qualitative insights and real-time events, into their assessments. Examining these differences can offer a more nuanced understanding of the election’s dynamics.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different vote share percentages for Restore Britain in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among participants regarding the potential results.
This market resolves around Mar 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the actual percentage of votes received by Restore Britain as declared by the official election authorities. The resolution process ensures that the outcome is determined by objective data and transparently reported results. Traders should monitor official sources for the final vote count to understand how this market will be settled.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major news events related to the candidates or parties involved, such as significant policy announcements or scandals, could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected shifts in national political trends or economic indicators could also impact predictions. Furthermore, the release of new polling data, even if it differs from existing averages, might cause price adjustments. Finally, any developments affecting voter turnout or campaign momentum in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election could lead to changes in the market’s pricing.
