TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 12:40 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of Reform UK in a specific parliamentary by-election, focusing on the share of votes they receive compared to all valid ballots cast. The outcome depends on whether their vote percentage meets or exceeds various thresholds, reflecting their electoral strength in that contest.
Kalshi
The event determines whether Reform UK achieves a specified vote percentage threshold in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The relevant percentage is calculated as the number of votes received by Reform UK divided by the total number of valid votes cast, multiplied by 100 and rounded. Certified or official results are used unless unavailable by the expiration date, in which case qualifying unofficial results may apply. Write-in votes are included in the calculation, while invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur, the specified round is used; if none is specified, the first round applies. Should the election be cancelled, suspended, or postponed before conclusion, or if no certified or qualifying unofficial results are available by the expiration date, the market resolves as NO, except under the Fully-Conducted Elections provision. If a recount alters the certified percentage before the expiration date, the most recent certified percentage is used to determine the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential scenarios. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to unique data points. Examining these differences can reveal where the market anticipates surprises or diverges from conventional wisdom regarding the Reform UK vote share.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential vote percentages for Reform UK in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time estimate of the likely outcome. The current market depth and order book are visible on the Kalshi interface, allowing traders to understand the supply and demand for each outcome.
This market resolves around Mar 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share achieved by Reform UK will be used to determine the winning contracts. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual result will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their stake. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available data.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the national political landscape, such as shifts in public opinion or significant policy announcements, could influence voter behavior in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Unexpected candidate controversies or impactful media coverage could also cause shifts in the market. Furthermore, any polling data released leading up to the election will likely be closely watched and reflected in trading activity on Kalshi.
