TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 12:38 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the outcome of a by-election where multiple parties and candidates compete to secure the third position. The resolution depends on the final certified results from the election authorities, reflecting the democratic process in a specific constituency.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the certified results of the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, specifically determining which listed party or candidate finishes in third place. Rankings are determined by the standard plurality voting method, using vote count or percentage. In the event of an exact tie for third place, the resolution is divided equally among the tied entities, rounded down. Any write-in candidate achieving third place invalidates all named candidate or party markets unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" market exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are still ranked based on the votes they received. The final outcome is determined solely by the London Borough of Camden's official certified results, with markets resolving to NO if an unlisted party or independent candidate finishes third, or if the election is cancelled, postponed beyond October 8, 2026, or no certified results are available by the expiration date.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to weigh information and make their own assessments about the likely outcome of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to unique information. Examining these differences can offer a more comprehensive understanding of the potential results and associated uncertainties.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the event. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news, polling data, and any other information traders deem relevant to the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
This market resolves around Dec 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official results announced by the relevant electoral authorities for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The market will settle to 100 for the winning candidate, and 0 for all others. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand when the market will be officially settled.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, unexpected endorsements, significant shifts in polling data, or impactful media coverage could all cause price fluctuations. Any unforeseen events affecting voter turnout or public perception could also move the market. Traders will be closely watching for these developments as they assess the probabilities surrounding the Holborn and St Pancras by-election and adjust their positions accordingly.
