TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 12:38 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks which political party secures the second-highest number of votes in a specific local election. The outcome depends on the official results declared after all votes are counted and certified. It reflects voter preferences and party performance in that particular constituency.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the official, certified results of the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election. For any party listed in the market to win, it must finish in second place according to the final vote tally determined under the applicable voting method—typically plurality voting, where rank is decided by vote count or percentage. In the event of an exact tie for second place, the payout is divided equally among all tied entities, rounded down. Write-in candidates achieving second place will cause all named candidate or party markets to resolve to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" market exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are still ranked based on any votes they receive. If an unlisted party or independent candidate finishes second, all listed markets resolve to NO. Furthermore, if the election is cancelled or postponed beyond the market’s expiration date, all markets resolve to NO. The resolution relies exclusively on the final certified results from the London Borough of Camden, not on preliminary election-night reports.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a different form of forecasting. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the information each source prioritizes. Examining these differences can reveal where the market anticipates surprises or diverges from conventional wisdom regarding the likely runner-up in this contest.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different candidates finishing in second place, and the price of each contract reflects the perceived probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief of the market. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism means the odds can shift rapidly in response to new information or changing sentiment surrounding the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
This market resolves around Mar 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on which candidate receives the second-highest number of votes in the official count. The process ensures an objective determination of the winner, independent of pre-election predictions or subjective interpretations. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome and their positions in this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major endorsements from prominent political figures, unexpected shifts in polling data, or significant campaign events could all influence trader sentiment. Any news related to candidate performance, fundraising efforts, or potential controversies could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, broader political events or national trends could indirectly impact the perceived likelihood of different outcomes in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, leading to changes in this market’s odds.
