Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for the Humanity’s Last Exam. However, general expectations around the capabilities of large language models like Gemini are widely discussed. If analysts predict significant advancements in AI performance leading up to 2026, we might expect to see increased probability assigned to higher score ranges within this market. Conversely, skepticism about AI progress could lead to lower probabilities for top-performing outcomes. This market provides a unique, quantifiable view of collective intelligence on this topic.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the highest score officially reported for a Google Gemini model on the Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026. Any publicly available and independently verifiable score will be considered. The market will settle to 100% for the outcome that corresponds to the verified highest score, and 0% for all other outcomes. Traders should monitor official announcements regarding the exam results as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Google regarding advancements in the Gemini model’s capabilities, particularly those related to reasoning and problem-solving, would likely cause price movements. The release of benchmark results on similar AI challenges could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected developments in the field of AI safety or regulation might also shift perceptions of Gemini’s potential performance on the Humanity’s Last Exam. Finally, any news regarding the exam itself – changes to the format, scoring, or participant pool – could move this market.