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HI-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?
kalshi

HI-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?

Volume:
$78,373

Ed Case, ≥15%

 - Kalshi

Ed Case, ≥15% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 26, 2026

Closed: Aug 26, 12:35 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ed Case, ≥15%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,701
N/A
N/A
$4,450
10mo 1w 5d
Yes
kalshi

Ed Case, 0-3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,583
N/A
N/A
$15,128
10mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Ed Case, 3-6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,371
N/A
N/A
$11,767
10mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Jarrett Keohokalole, 0-3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,418
N/A
N/A
$5,651
10mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Ed Case, 6-9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,037
N/A
N/A
$5,345
10mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Ed Case, 12-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,891
N/A
N/A
$2,991
10mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Ed Case, 9-12%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,771
N/A
N/A
$2,483
10mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Jarrett Keohokalole, 6-9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,638
N/A
N/A
$2,508
10mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Jarrett Keohokalole, 9-12%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,443
N/A
N/A
$2,567
10mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Jarrett Keohokalole, ≥15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,271
N/A
N/A
$2,445
10mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Jarrett Keohokalole, 3-6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,211
N/A
N/A
$2,154
10mo 1w 5d
No
kalshi

Jarrett Keohokalole, 12-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,037
N/A
N/A
$887
10mo 1w 5d
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks how much one candidate beats their nearest rival by in a primary election, with different markets covering various percentage point ranges of the victory margin.

Kalshi

The event determines the winner based on the margin of victory for either Ed Case or Jarrett Keohokalole in the 2026 HI-01 Democratic primary. Each market corresponds to a specific percentage range for the margin of victory, which is calculated as the difference in vote share between the candidate and their nearest competitor. If the candidate wins, the margin is positive; if they lose, it is negative; and a tie results in a zero margin. The ranges are inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound, with no rounding applied. Votes for a candidate running under multiple parties or listings are summed together. The market resolves to Yes if the actual margin falls within the specified range for the respective candidate.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for short_topic. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the expected margin of victory in the HI-01 Democratic primary. The interface updates continuously to reflect market activity, letting users monitor shifts in sentiment as the election approaches. With a volume of $78,373 and 24-hour volume of $240, the dashboard offers a clear view of market dynamics and trader confidence in the race's likely outcome.

This market resolves around Aug 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin will be calculated based on official primary results, and the market will settle accordingly. Timing depends on when authoritative results are announced, typically shortly after voting concludes.

Poll releases, candidate debates, fundraising announcements, and local endorsements could all shift this market as they change perceptions of voter preferences. Media coverage of key issues or controversies involving the candidates may also influence trader sentiment. As the primary nears, any significant developments — such as endorsements from influential figures or changes in campaign momentum — are likely to drive volatility. The market will respond to any new information that alters the expected margin of victory, with volume potentially spiking around major events.