TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

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4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Headline PCE inflation in September
kalshi

What will September PCE inflation be?

Volume:
$13,887

Above 0.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 29, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,688
N/A
N/A
$2,396
2d 10h 4m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.1%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,348
N/A
N/A
$1,714
2d 10h 4m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,090
N/A
N/A
$3,090
2d 10h 4m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,221
N/A
N/A
$936
2d 10h 4m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.3%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$245
N/A
N/A
$245
2d 10h 4m
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,107
N/A
N/A
$450
2d 10h 4m
No
kalshi

Above 0.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$188
N/A
N/A
$100
2d 10h 4m
No
kalshi

Above 0.6%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 10h 4m
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks expected changes in the cost of consumer goods and services over a one-month period, reflecting broader economic trends. It measures how much more expensive a basket of everyday items becomes from one month to the next, including volatile items like food and energy. The outcome depends on the first official government report for that month, with later adjustments ignored.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate for September 2026, measured as the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change and including food and energy. The determining value comes from the first official publication in the Personal Income and Outlays report for that month; any subsequent revisions do not alter the outcome. Each market has a specific threshold (ranging from above 0.0% to above 0.7%), and resolves to "Yes" if the published inflation rate exceeds its respective threshold. The structure allows participants to assess varying degrees of inflationary pressure expected in that month.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the September PCE inflation market tracks the current odds of various inflation outcomes, along with a price history showing how those odds have changed over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $482, and the total volume traded to date, which is $13,887. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to the upcoming inflation data release. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets on the headline PCE inflation rate for September.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts. While many economists predict a slight decrease in the PCE inflation rate, this market suggests a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to note that prediction markets incorporate a diverse set of information, including expert opinions, economic indicators, and even sentiment analysis, potentially leading to a more nuanced view than a single analyst’s prediction. This market provides a unique perspective on the likely path of inflation, distinct from standard economic projections.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different PCE inflation outcomes, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probability of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the collective belief of all traders regarding the likelihood of that specific inflation rate occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices and probabilities will adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and responsive market for forecasting inflation.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official headline PCE inflation rate for September is verifiable from credible public reporting. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases this data, and the market will settle based on the figure reported in that official release. Traders will be able to see the final settlement price once the BEA data is available and the outcome is confirmed. This provides a clear and objective basis for determining the results of this market.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as employment figures or other inflation indicators, could shift trader sentiment. Statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy also have the potential to move prices. Geopolitical events or supply chain disruptions could influence inflation expectations, affecting trading activity. Finally, revisions to previously released economic data could prompt traders to reassess their positions, leading to volatility in this market until it resolves.