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Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on August 17?
kalshi
polymarket

Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on August 17?

Volume:
$16,594

Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on August 17?

 - Polymarket

Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on August 17? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 17, 11:12 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on August 17?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,438
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least HK$26,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,301
N/A
N/A
$1,301
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least HK$30,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,534
N/A
N/A
$2,946
Settled
No
kalshi

At least HK$29,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,109
N/A
N/A
$1,537
Settled
No
kalshi

At least HK$29,500

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,674
N/A
N/A
$1,350
Settled
No
kalshi

At least HK$28,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,022
N/A
N/A
$830
Settled
No
kalshi

At least HK$27,500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,010
N/A
N/A
$843
Settled
No
kalshi

At least HK$26,500

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$665
N/A
N/A
$433
Settled
No
kalshi

At least HK$28,500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$523
N/A
N/A
$434
Settled
No
kalshi

At least HK$27,000

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$314
N/A
N/A
$297
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group determines the performance of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) on August 17, 2026. One market evaluates whether the HSI closes higher or lower than its previous trading day closing price, while the other evaluates whether the HSI remains above certain thresholds for a month-long period.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution criteria: Polymarket uses a single-day price comparison while Kalshi uses a month-long threshold testHero tip: Traders should carefully consider which market aligns with their view of HSI performance. Polymarket suits those focused on short-term movements around August 17, while Kalshi suits those expecting sustained high levels throughout August.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if HSI closing price on August 17, 2026 is higher than the most recent prior trading day's closing price. Resolves to Down if lower. Exact equality or no trading results in 50-50 resolution.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if HSI is at least HK$26,000 (or higher thresholds up to HK$30,000) from August 2, 2026 to August 31, 2026. No explicit Up/Down determination - each threshold is a separate binary outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Hang Seng Index closing price for Hang Seng (HSI) on Monday, August 17, 2026 is higher than the official Hang Seng Index closing price for HSI on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Hang Seng Index closing price for Hang Seng (HSI) on Monday, August 17, 2026 is lower than the official Hang Seng Index closing price for HSI on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If HSI does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Hang Seng Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on whether the Hang Seng Index (HSI) reaches or exceeds specified threshold levels at any point between August 2, 2026, and August 31, 2026. Data for resolution will be sourced from Trading View, using the index's natively published level in its own currency and units without conversion. It is sufficient for the index to meet or surpass the threshold even momentarily during the period; sustained levels are not required. If the index fails to reach the specified level throughout the period, the market resolves to No. Post-expiration revisions to the index will not affect resolution. Should data be unavailable for the entire evaluation period by the expiration date, all markets except those explicitly labeled "No data" or "None" will resolve to No. All index levels are evaluated to two decimal places unless otherwise stated. Kalshi and its data sources are not affiliated with or endorsed by the index provider, and these markets comply with respective Pyth feed guidelines.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Hang Seng direction market aggregates activity across multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume. It tracks how traders on different platforms price the likelihood of the Hang Seng Index moving higher or lower by August 17. You can see consensus views and compare how Polymarket and Kalshi users are positioning, with total volume at $16,594 and 24-hour volume at $2,438.

Key signals that could shift this market include major economic announcements from China or Hong Kong, changes in global risk sentiment, policy moves by central banks, and shifts in trade flows affecting Asian markets. Geopolitical developments and major corporate earnings from index constituents can also create volatility, causing rapid re-pricing of expectations for the Hang Seng Index direction.