TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Greater Wellington Wairarapa By-Election Winner
polymarket

Who will win the Greater Wellington Wairarapa By-Election?

Volume:
$4,750

John Hart

 - Polymarket

John Hart - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 7:22 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

John Hart

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Alistair Plimmer

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Colin Olds

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amber Craig

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$360
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Jill Greathead

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$266
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Michael Birch

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate K

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate L

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate N

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate O

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate P

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate Q

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate R

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate S

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 33

Description

A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).

Polymarket

A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polling averages due to the market’s pricing mechanism, where traders bet based on their expectations and risk tolerance. While polls sample public opinion, this market incorporates broader financial incentives and can react faster to emerging news or campaign developments. The gap between the two can highlight where market participants see value differently than sampled voters.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders continuously bid and ask for contracts representing each possible outcome, determining the current implied probabilities. The top outcome’s price reflects the collective assessment of all participants’ expectations and available information up to Aug 21, 2026. Volume of $531 over the last 24 hours shows how actively the market is trading.

This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning candidate’s official declaration by the relevant electoral authority determines the final settlement, aligning market contracts with the actual vote tally. Timing depends on when official results are announced post-election.