TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether rental prices for NVIDIA H100 GPUs, as measured by the Ornn H100 Index, will fall to $2.50 or lower at any point before the end of May 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome currently stands at 94.0%. Resolution will be determined by daily price data published on the Ornn H100 Index chart at dashboard.ornnai.com, with prices considered finalized once the following day's data point is released. Watch for any significant shifts in GPU supply dynamics or demand patterns that could push rental rates toward the $2.50 threshold by May 31, 2026.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction about H100 rental prices, which often diverges from traditional analyst forecasts. While equity research firms and cloud infrastructure analysts publish periodic reports on GPU pricing trends, prediction markets aggregate distributed information from participants with direct market exposure. The current market-implied probability offers a dynamic, continuously updated alternative to static analyst reports. Comparing Polymarket odds to published forecasts from infrastructure consultants or cloud providers can reveal where consensus differs and highlight emerging shifts in GPU supply-demand expectations that analysts may not yet have incorporated.
The market resolves on May 31, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by whether H100 rental prices have met the specified threshold. Resolution is based on verified pricing data from the Ornn H100 Index or equivalent authoritative source. Once the resolution criteria are assessed, the market settles and traders receive payouts according to their positions. Until that date, the market remains active for trading, allowing participants to adjust their exposure based on new developments in GPU availability, pricing trends, and broader AI infrastructure dynamics.
Several catalysts could shift H100 rental price expectations before May 31, 2026. New GPU supply announcements from NVIDIA or alternative chip makers would directly impact rental scarcity and pricing. Major AI model releases or enterprise adoption surges could spike demand for H100 capacity. Cloud provider pricing announcements, data center expansion timelines, and macroeconomic shifts affecting AI investment budgets all influence rental rates. Regulatory changes affecting data center operations or energy costs may also play a role. Geopolitical developments affecting semiconductor supply chains and competitive AI spending by major tech firms represent additional wildcards that traders monitor closely.