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781,508

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MATCHED EVENTS:

876

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Science and Technology
GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?
Science and Technology
kalshi
polymarket

GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$4,201
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$328
100%
Open interest:
$1,692
0%
PredictionHero
Above $3.68 99%
kalshi
Above $3.38 94%
kalshi
$4.00+ 88%
polymarket
May 27May 29Jun 1Jun 3Jun 5Jun 7Jun 9Jun 11Jun 13Jun 16Jun 19Jun 22Jun 25Jun 28Jul 1Jul 3Jul 5Jul 7Jul 9Jul 10020406080100

Closed: Dec 31, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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7d
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Result

Description

This event group tracks H100 GPU rental prices at the end of 2026 across two prediction platforms using different pricing indices and bracket structures. Kalshi offers 20 binary markets with ascending price thresholds, while Polymarket uses the Ornn H100 Index with 8 categorical brackets. Both aim to capture market expectations for compute rental costs but employ distinct measurement methodologies and resolution sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure H100 rental prices using different or unspecified indices. Kalshi does not disclose its data source, while Polymarket explicitly uses the Ornn H100 Index. Price levels may not align between platforms, and resolution disputes could arise if the indices diverge.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with potentially different outcomes. Kalshi's lack of source transparency is a red flag—contact Kalshi support to confirm their pricing methodology before the resolution date. Polymarket's explicit Ornn H100 Index source is more auditable. If you trade both, hedge accordingly and do not assume cross-platform arbitrage will close.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 20 binary markets with ascending price thresholds ($1.13 to $3.98/hour) for H100 SXM compute. No data source, pricing provider, or methodology disclosed. Resolution depends on an undefined reference price.
  • Polymarket: 8 categorical bracket markets based on the Ornn H100 Index (ornnai.com). Explicit resolution source and finalization rules: data is finalized once the next day's data point is published; if not finalized within 7 calendar days post-Dec 31, 2026, latest available data is used.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H100 Index price for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H100 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the hourly compute price of NVIDIA H100 SXM as reported by Ornn's pricing dashboard in USD. The market uses the official closing value on December 31, 2026, rounded to two decimal places. If no pricing data is available by the expiration date, all price thresholds resolve to No. Historical revisions to the underlying data made after expiration are not considered. Each price threshold independently resolves Yes if the H100 SXM compute price exceeds that specific level by the deadline.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.19.1PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.