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470,731

Markets across

35,423

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,810

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?

Total volume:
$86,621
Volume 24h:
$672N/A
Liquidity:
$4,202
14%
Open interest:
$5,548
0%

Above $3.23

 - Kalshi

Above $3.23 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.23 by Dec 31?

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% | APY: 76% 68 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $3.23

Trade
90%
Yes 90¢No 100¢
90¢
N/A
$472
0%
0%
$163
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $3.38

Trade
65%
Yes 72¢No 100¢
72¢
N/A
$1,625
0%
0%
$1,080
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $3.68

Trade
51%
Yes 54¢No 100¢
54¢
N/A
$2,327
0%
0%
$1,249
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $3.83

Trade
37%
Yes 47¢No 100¢
47¢
N/A
$1,015
0%
0%
$529
2mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

$3.00-$3.50

Trade
24%
5%
Yes 27.6¢No 80¢
7.6¢
$508
$12,367
0%
5%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$2.50-$3.00

Trade
20%
2%
Yes 28.7¢No 83.5¢
12.2¢
$481
$21,771
0%
0.93%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$4.00+

Trade
17%
7%
Yes 29¢No 81.4¢
10.4¢
$234
$3,343
5%
12%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$2.00-$2.50

Trade
16%
1%
Yes 18.5¢No 86.5¢
5¢
$863
$18,852
0%
0.02%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$1.50-$2.00

Trade
13%
Yes 14.9¢No 89.9¢
4.8¢
$801
$12,824
0%
0.75%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

$3.50-$4.00

Trade
9%
Yes 11.3¢No 92.5¢
3.8¢
$728
$3,744
0%
0.1%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

<$1.50

Trade
4%
2%
Yes 12.4¢No 99¢
11.4¢
$588
$2,254
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Above $3.53

Trade
43%
Yes 62¢No 100¢
62¢
N/A
$2,376
0%
0%
$948
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $3.98

Trade
23%
Yes 42¢No 100¢
42¢
N/A
$1,406
0%
0%
$579
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Above $3.08

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$481
N/A
N/A
$128
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.63

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$372
N/A
N/A
$144
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.78

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$336
N/A
N/A
$228
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.48

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$270
N/A
N/A
$97
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.18

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$43
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.88

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
$19
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.03

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$111
N/A
N/A
$28
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.43

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
$105
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.73

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
$52
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.58

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$84
N/A
N/A
$64
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $2.33

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$79
N/A
N/A
$38
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.28

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
$27
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 27

Description

This event group tracks H100 GPU rental prices at the end of 2026 across two prediction platforms using different pricing indices and bracket structures. Kalshi offers 20 binary markets with ascending price thresholds, while Polymarket uses the Ornn H100 Index with 8 categorical brackets. Both aim to capture market expectations for compute rental costs but employ distinct measurement methodologies and resolution sources.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure H100 rental prices using different or unspecified indices. Kalshi does not disclose its data source, while Polymarket explicitly uses the Ornn H100 Index. Price levels may not align between platforms, and resolution disputes could arise if the indices diverge.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with potentially different outcomes. Kalshi's lack of source transparency is a red flag—contact Kalshi support to confirm their pricing methodology before the resolution date. Polymarket's explicit Ornn H100 Index source is more auditable. If you trade both, hedge accordingly and do not assume cross-platform arbitrage will close.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: 20 binary markets with ascending price thresholds ($1.13 to $3.98/hour) for H100 SXM compute. No data source, pricing provider, or methodology disclosed. Resolution depends on an undefined reference price.
  • Polymarket: 8 categorical bracket markets based on the Ornn H100 Index (ornnai.com). Explicit resolution source and finalization rules: data is finalized once the next day's data point is published; if not finalized within 7 calendar days post-Dec 31, 2026, latest available data is used.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H100 Index price for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H100 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the hourly compute price of NVIDIA H100 SXM as reported by Ornn's pricing dashboard in USD. The market uses the official closing value on December 31, 2026, rounded to two decimal places. If no pricing data is available by the expiration date, all price thresholds resolve to No. Historical revisions to the underlying data made after expiration are not considered. Each price threshold independently resolves Yes if the H100 SXM compute price exceeds that specific level by the deadline.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks predictions about the price of renting an H100 GPU by the end of 2026. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $86,581, with $200 traded in the last 24 hours. This dashboard provides a consensus view of expectations for the H100 GPU rental market, combining insights from both venues. As of today, Polymarket currently favors Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026? at 23.8%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.23 by Dec 31? at 90.0%. The differing probabilities reflect varying interpretations of supply chain dynamics and demand forecasts.

Prediction market odds often provide a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on modeling and expert opinions, this market reflects the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the future price of H100 GPU rentals. Currently, the market’s implied probability distribution differs from some recent reports suggesting a faster decline in GPU prices. This divergence could be due to traders anticipating continued strong demand from AI developers, or a slower ramp-up in GPU supply. Tracking both sources of information provides a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity. Differences in market design, such as fees or margin requirements, can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, the specific markets offered on each platform – Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026? versus Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.23 by Dec 31? – frame the prediction in slightly different ways, attracting different types of traders. These variations can lead to temporary price differences, which may converge as Jan 1, 2027 approaches and more information becomes available.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of H100 GPU rentals will be determined by averaging prices from leading cloud providers and rental services as reported by industry publications. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of the market conditions at the time of resolution. Traders should monitor industry news and pricing data leading up to Jan 1, 2027 to stay informed about potential catalysts that could influence the final outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from NVIDIA regarding H100 production capacity or new GPU architectures would be key catalysts. Shifts in demand from large AI companies, such as changes in their cloud computing strategies, could also move prices. Geopolitical events impacting supply chains, or unexpected breakthroughs in alternative computing technologies, represent further potential drivers. Finally, macroeconomic factors like interest rates and inflation, which influence capital expenditure, could indirectly affect demand for GPU rentals and thus impact this market.