TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Above 8.9%
- Kalshi
Above 8.9% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 06h:04m:58s
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This event tracks the proportion of AI-related requests processed through Google Vercel across leading research institutions on a specific day. It reflects potential trends in technology adoption and infrastructure preferences within the AI development community. The outcome depends on whether this proportion meets or exceeds various predefined thresholds.
All markets resolve based on the Google Vercel share of AI Gateway requests from top laboratories on November 2, 2026. The share is measured and rounded to one decimal place. Determination occurs at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026, using the updated chart value for the previous day. Each market has a specific threshold; if the measured share exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. All markets are independent, with thresholds ranging from 8.9% to 12.9%. Kalshi clarifies it has no official connection with Vercel, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for Google's share of requests on Vercel in 2026, as such long-term predictions are not widely available. However, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than individual expert opinions. If analysts were to publish forecasts, comparing their projections to the implied probabilities reflected in this market would be a valuable exercise to assess the range of possible outcomes and the level of uncertainty surrounding them.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of probabilities and provides a real-time gauge of market sentiment regarding Google’s Vercel share in 2026.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on the verified share of requests handled by Google through Vercel on November 2, 2026, as reported by Vercel. The specific methodology for determining this share will be based on publicly available data and will be assessed for accuracy and reliability. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi following the event.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major announcements from Google or Vercel regarding their infrastructure, partnerships, or AI gateway strategies would be key catalysts. Changes in the competitive landscape, such as the emergence of new AI platforms or shifts in developer preferences, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, broader economic trends or technological breakthroughs in serverless computing and edge functions could impact the perceived likelihood of Google’s Vercel share increasing or decreasing, driving price fluctuations in this market.