TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 26, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on June 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on June 26, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on June 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on June 26, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts operate on different timescales and methodologies. While Wall Street analysts typically issue longer-term price targets and earnings estimates, this market distills collective trader sentiment into a binary outcome for a single day. Analyst consensus may favor bullish or bearish views based on earnings, product announcements, or macro trends, but prediction markets often react faster to breaking news and incorporate real-time information. Comparing the two can reveal whether professional forecasters and active traders align on near-term stock direction.
On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on one outcome—up or down—and the price of each reflects the probability the market assigns. As traders place orders, the price adjusts in real time; higher demand for the up outcome pushes its price higher and the down outcome lower, and vice versa. The spread between bid and ask prices narrows or widens based on trading volume and conviction.
This market resolves around Jun 26, 2026, once the trading day concludes and Google's closing price is finalized. The outcome is determined by comparing GOOGL's closing price on that date to its opening price; if it closes higher, the up outcome wins, and if it closes lower, the down outcome wins. Verification occurs once the price movement is confirmed through credible public financial reporting, at which point the winning shares are paid out and the market settles.
Several catalysts could shift odds before Jun 26, 2026. Earnings announcements, product launches, or regulatory news involving Google can trigger sharp repricing. Broader market movements—such as Fed policy shifts, tech sector rotation, or macroeconomic data—often correlate with individual stock direction. Insider trading disclosures, analyst upgrades or downgrades, and competitive announcements from rivals like Microsoft or Meta may also influence trader positioning. Intraday momentum and options expiration activity on the same date can amplify volatility and reshape market expectations in the final hours.