TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 7:17 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD.
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability of Google’s stock closing above a certain threshold, as reflected in the odds on Polymarket. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a wider range of potential closing prices. It's important to remember that analyst predictions are based on models and fundamental analysis, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incorporation of real-time information and market sentiment.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Google stock closing price. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of the outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the stock will close at a particular level, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb. This creates a dynamic pricing system driven entirely by supply and demand, offering a real-time assessment of market expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Google (GOOGL) stock on the final day of trading during the week of September 14th will be used to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized financial data source, ensuring transparency and accuracy in determining the result of this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major company announcements from Google, such as earnings reports or product launches, would likely cause substantial price movement. Broader economic news, including inflation data or interest rate decisions, could also impact investor sentiment and, consequently, the market. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in the overall stock market trend could also play a role in shaping the probabilities reflected in this market. Any news impacting the tech sector specifically will be closely watched by traders.