TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 4:28 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD.
Currently, the odds on Polymarket suggest a high probability that Google will close above the specified price on Sep 28, 2026. This differs from some analyst forecasts, which present a wider range of potential closing prices. While traditional polls and analyst predictions rely on subjective assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-money bets on the outcome. It's important to note that prediction market prices represent what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a specific outcome, offering a unique perspective compared to expert opinions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Google's stock will close above the target price. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of traders on Polymarket, and is influenced by news, earnings reports, and overall market sentiment regarding Google's performance.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Google's stock (GOOGL) on that date will be checked against the specified threshold. The market will then settle based on whether the stock price closed above or below that level. This determination will be made using publicly available financial data sources, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 28, 2026. Major catalysts include Google's quarterly earnings reports, any significant news regarding new product launches or regulatory challenges, and broader macroeconomic trends affecting the technology sector. Unexpected announcements from competitors, shifts in investor sentiment, or even general market volatility could also cause substantial price movements in this market. Positive or negative developments related to Google's AI initiatives are also likely to influence trading activity.