TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 12, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on June 12 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on June 12 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they reflect real-money commitments from traders rather than consensus estimates. While equity analysts publish formal forecasts based on financial models and company guidance, this market prices the outcome through continuous trading by participants who stand to gain or lose based on accuracy. Comparing the implied probability here to Wall Street consensus can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric risk or opportunity relative to published research.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares that pay out based on the outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the probability that Google will close above the specified level, with higher prices indicating stronger conviction among traders. Liquidity and order flow determine how quickly prices adjust to new information, so active trading typically leads to tighter bid-ask spreads and more efficient price discovery.
This market resolves around Jun 12, 2026, once the trading day concludes and Google's official closing price is published. The outcome is determined by comparing GOOGL's actual closing price on that date to the threshold specified in the market. Resolution is verified against credible public sources, ensuring all traders have access to the same authoritative data. Once confirmed, payouts are distributed to holders of the winning outcome.
Earnings announcements, product launches, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic shifts can all influence Google's stock price and thus trader positioning in this market. Broader tech sector momentum, changes in advertising demand, and competitive pressures from AI rivals may also drive repricing. Unexpected management commentary or geopolitical events affecting Big Tech could trigger sharp moves. Traders typically react quickly to breaking news, so watch for volatility spikes around major catalysts leading up to the June 12 close.