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Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on September 14?
polymarket
kalshi

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on September 14?

Volume:
$172,888

Above $4290

 - Kalshi

Above $4290 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $4290

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,897
N/A
N/A
$8,729
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4280

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,549
N/A
N/A
$1,997
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4270

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,950
N/A
N/A
$4,554
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4260

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,358
N/A
N/A
$883
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4150

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,063
N/A
N/A
$3,050
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4250

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,275
N/A
N/A
$921
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4230

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,159
N/A
N/A
$472
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4220

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$902
N/A
N/A
$759
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4240

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$611
N/A
N/A
$481
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4160

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$381
N/A
N/A
$381
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4180

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
$206
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4200

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$198
N/A
N/A
$192
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4210

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$173
N/A
N/A
$172
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4170

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
$71
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4300

View
0%
81%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,272
N/A
N/A
$6,781
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4310

View
0%
74%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,293
N/A
N/A
$5,863
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4350

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,198
N/A
N/A
$6,374
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4320

View
0%
58%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,559
N/A
N/A
$4,877
Settled
No
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on September 14?

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,994
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $4340

View
0%
52%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,542
N/A
N/A
$3,722
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4330

View
0%
58%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,704
N/A
N/A
$1,947
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4360

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,744
N/A
N/A
$4,038
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4370

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,017
N/A
N/A
$1,030
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4410

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,661
N/A
N/A
$1,518
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $4380

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,406
N/A
N/A
$840
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This group asks whether the price of Gold (XAUUSD) will be higher or lower on September 14, 2026, compared to the prior trading day. The markets use different methodologies for determining the 'higher or lower' condition, creating a divergence.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge on how 'Up' or 'Down' is defined. Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds, while Polymarket uses a relative comparison to the prior day's close.Hero tip: Consider the differing sensitivities of each market. Kalshi's thresholds make a 'Yes' outcome more likely, even with a small price increase. Polymarket requires a clear directional move.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Up' if the close price on September 14, 2026, is higher than the close price on the most recent prior trading day, as reported by Pyth. Resolves to 'Down' if lower, and 50/50 if equal. Source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Up' if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT is above any of the specified thresholds (4150 - 4540 USD/t.oz). No relative comparison to the prior day's price.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on September 14, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4150 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4160 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4170 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4180 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4190 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4200 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4210 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4220 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4230 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4240 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4250 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4260 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4270 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4280 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4290 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4300 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4310 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4320 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4330 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4340 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4350 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4360 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4370 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4380 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4390 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4400 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4410 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4420 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4430 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4440 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4450 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4460 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4470 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4480 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4490 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4500 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4510 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4520 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4530 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes. If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on September 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4540 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.