TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 8, 5:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 8, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 8, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8 event is priced as a binary contract where traders buy or sell shares representing each outcome. The current odds reflect the ratio of capital allocated to the Up and Down sides. Prices move continuously as new trades execute, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating liquidity depth. Traders can enter or exit positions at any time before Jun 8, 2026, and the final settlement price is determined by the actual gold price movement on that date, making Polymarket's pricing mechanism fully transparent and responsive to breaking news or economic data.
The Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8 market resolves on Jun 8, 2026, marking the official end of trading and settlement. Resolution is determined by the direction of gold's price movement on that specific date, comparing the closing price to the opening or a predetermined reference level. Once the market closes and the final gold price is recorded, the outcome is locked in and traders' positions settle according to which side correctly predicted the direction. All positions held through resolution are automatically paid out based on the confirmed outcome.
Gold prices are highly sensitive to US dollar strength, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risk. Major catalysts before Jun 8, 2026 include Federal Reserve communications, inflation data releases, and any escalation in international tensions. Safe-haven demand typically pushes gold higher during market stress or equity selloffs, while a stronger dollar or rising real yields can pressure prices lower. Central bank policy announcements, employment reports, and unexpected economic data surprises can all trigger sharp intraday moves. Traders should monitor financial news, economic calendars, and currency markets closely, as these factors often drive gold's directional bias in the days leading up to resolution.