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Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 29?
polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 29?

Volume:
$13,774

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 29?

 - Polymarket

Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 29? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 5:00 PM EST

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Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 29?

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,774
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 29, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 29, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 29, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 29, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the gold price movement market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price data for whether gold will move up or down by market close on June 29. The interface displays the current probability assigned by traders to each outcome, along with trading volume and order-book depth. This lets you monitor how market sentiment shifts as new information about macroeconomic conditions, central bank policy, and currency movements emerges. The dashboard provides a live snapshot of collective trader conviction on gold's directional move.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets rather than survey opinions. Traders in this market are financially incentivized to price in all available information—Fed statements, inflation data, geopolitical tensions, and currency trends—instantly. Analysts may publish forecasts on a fixed schedule or with inherent lag, whereas market odds update continuously. Comparing the two reveals whether professional consensus aligns with trader conviction on gold's near-term direction, and can highlight emerging risks that formal research has not yet fully priced in.

On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome—gold up or gold down—at prices between 0 and 1, where the price reflects the implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As traders place orders, the price adjusts based on supply and demand, with the spread between bid and ask reflecting liquidity and conviction. Higher prices signal stronger belief in that outcome. Your profit or loss depends on whether you bought low and the outcome resolved in your favor, or sold high before a reversal.

This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once the gold price movement for that date is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by whether the XAUUSD spot price closes higher or lower than its opening level on June 29. No further action is required from you; the platform will confirm the result automatically once the market close data is published and verified. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout shortly after resolution.

Key catalysts include Federal Reserve communications on interest rates and monetary policy, inflation data releases, and geopolitical developments affecting safe-haven demand. Currency movements—particularly USD strength or weakness—directly impact gold pricing since the metal is priced in dollars. Central bank gold purchases or sales, energy market shocks, and equity market volatility can all shift trader positioning. Economic data surprises, trade tensions, or unexpected political events may trigger rapid repricing as traders reassess the probability of each outcome before the June 29 close.